Study On Factors Of Provincial Heterogeneity Of Carbon Emissions In China

With the progress of human production and life activities and the continuous advancement of the degree of world civilization,human consumption of resources is increasing,and the pressure on the environment is also increasing day by day.Among them,one of the most significant pressures is the increase of carbon emissions.A large increase in carbon emissions will cause disasters such as global warming,sea level rise and climate change.As the largest carbon emission country in the world,China’s emission reduction work is urgent.At the same time,China’s vast land area and large latitude and longitude span will inevitably lead to significant regional differences.The emission reduction paths and priorities of provinces and cities with different emission levels and different development levels can not be generalized.Therefore,this paper studies the provincial heterogeneity of China’s carbon emissions,and explores the primary and secondary degree and difference of its influencing factors.Firstly,in order to explore the differences in the degree of provincial development,this paper uses the panel data of environment,economy and population of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019 to cluster China’s provinces,and finally divides the regions into three categories: high-level development regions,more developed regions and regions requiring development.Through the descriptive analysis of the indicators of the three types of regions,this paper determines the differences between the three development level regions and the consistency between the regions at the same development level.Secondly,the quantile regression models of economy,population and technology are established for the carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of the three types of regions.The results show that the most significant factor affecting carbon emissions in high-level areas is urbanization,and the impact is positive;The most significant factors affecting carbon emissions in more developed areas are economic factors,demographic factors and industrial factors.Among them,the influence of demographic factors is positive,while economic factors and industrial factors are negative inhibition;The most significant factor affecting carbon emissions in the areas to be developed is the population factor,the direction is reverse inhibition,followed by economic factors,and the direction is great positive.At the same time,the above conclusions also reflect the differences of the main factors affecting their carbon emissions and the degree and direction of impact in regions with different development levels,and illustrate the necessity and rationality of dividing and managing provinces and regions and implementing emission reduction in different regions.Finally,in order to explore the follow-up impact of significant influencing factors on carbon emissions in the future,a panel vector autoregressive model between carbon emissions and their significant influencing factors is established for the three types of regions,and the panel vector autoregressive model is used for impulse response analysis.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn: for high-level development areas and more developed areas,the impact of various variables will fluctuate in different directions in the next few years,and the fluctuation degree will decrease with the extension of time.For regions requiring development,economic factors,demographic factors and industrialization factors will promote the increase of carbon emissions in the next few years.