| With the continuous development of industrial society and economy,the impact of climate change brought by greenhouse gases on human society and the ecological environment of the earth is increasingly serious.The emission reduction of greenhouse gases has become the focus and research direction of all countries and research institutions around the world.Industrial source is an important component of greenhouse gas emission.Heavy chemical industry is a powerful foundation for a country’s national economy to realize modernization.The heavy chemical industry park is an important carrier of the heavy chemical industry.The energy consumption,process structure and product type of the heavy chemical industry park are very different from other ordinary parks.Therefore,the total carbon emission of the heavy chemical industry park is calculated,and the influence of different influencing factors on the carbon emission of the park is analyzed.It is helpful for the park itself and the competent authorities to timely adjust the carbon reduction policies and measures of the heavy chemical industry park,and promote the park to make better contributions to the completion of the double carbon goal.First of all,based on the historical energy consumption and economic data of a heavy chemical industry park in Northwest China from 2013 to 2020,this paper calculated the carbon emissions of the park over the years.Generalized divisia index method(GDIM)is adopted to analyze eight absolute indicators,including output scale,energy consumption scale,investment scale,fossil energy consumption scale,total electricity consumption scale,carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption,carbon emissions from electricity use and carbon emissions from industrial processes and 10 relative indicators output carbon intensity,energy structure,investment carbon intensity,investment efficiency,energy intensity,fossil energy structure,electricity structure,industrial emission ratio,electricity consumption carbon emission ratio,fossil energy consumption carbon emission ratio of the heavy industry park.To park history data with the current related policy,technology and related technology development trend of the future for the target zone set up a different future prediction and development situation of carbon decomposition analysis.Based on the analysis of the data change trend of the industrial park over the years,the carbon emission prediction results of the industrial park under different scenarios and the analytical results of the contribution value of GDIM model to the driving factors of carbon emission,the feasible carbon emission reduction path of the heavy chemical industry park is given.The results show that the optimization of electricity structure,the reduction of fossil energy carbon emission,output carbon intensity,energy intensity,investment efficiency,and the increase of carbon emission proportion of electricity consumption have significant effects on carbon emission inhibition.The reduction of fossil energy consumption scale,energy consumption scale and investment carbon intensity caused more obvious inhibition effect;The deterioration of fossil energy and energy structure,investment scale,output scale,total power consumption scale,carbon emissions from electricity use and the growth of fossil energy emissions are the main factors for the growth of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions from industrial processes and their proportion have a limited effect on changes in carbon emissions.Secondly,take Target heavy Chemical Industry Park as an example,The carbon emissions of the target park increased from 19.507 million tons in 2013 to 22.235 million tons in 2020.In the absolute indicators,the growth of electricity consumption scale and fixed asset investment scale in the park is the most important promoting factor.The cumulative contribution value is 1.077 million tons and 637,300 tons respectively,the decrease of fossil energy consumption scale was the main inhibiting factor,and the cumulative contribution value was 948,700 tons.In the relative quantity index,the deterioration of energy structure was the main promoting factor,with cumulative contribution of 908,700 tons.The decrease of carbon intensity was the main inhibiting factor,and the cumulative contribution value was 1.609 million tons.The scenario prediction method is selected to predict the carbon emission peak in the heavy chemical industry park,and the carbon emission model is constructed by analyzing different influencing factors.Based on the change trend of historical data,relevant policy requirements and potential future technology development trend,the change rate of different influencing factors is scientifically and reasonably preset,and according to this,different carbon emission scenarios of the target heavy chemical industry park are set up,and the carbon emissions of the target park under different scenarios are predicted.The prediction results showed that,under the baseline emission scenario,the carbon emissions of the target park will continue to rise and will not reach the peak before 2035,with the emissions of about 29.930 million tons in 2035.After CCUS support,the effect is still not obvious,and the growth still reaches about 22.46%;Under the combined emission scenario,the carbon emission of the target park cannot reach the peak before2035,and the emission in 2035 is about 24.493 million tons.After CCUS support,there is a significant decline,which can reach the peak in 2025,and the peak emission is about22.812 million tons.then,the carbon emission of the park began to decline slowly,and the emission in 2035 was about 19.929 million tons.Under the technology emission scenario,the carbon emissions of the target park show a slow upward trend from 2021-2025 and will reach the peak in 2025,with the peak emission of about 22.475 million tons.It then slowly declines,reaching 21.084 million tons in 2035,after CCUS support,the peak carbon emission in the park is not advanced,and the peak carbon emission is about 21.475 million tons.but the decline will accelerate after 2025,the emissions in 2035 are about 16.084 million tons.Then,the GDIM model was used to decompose the contributions of each influencing factor under the technology breakthrough scenario of the optimal peak reaching scenario of the target park,so as to explore the differential contributions of each influencing factor in the peak reaching scenario.The decomposition results show that the influence strength and direction of each influencing factor are basically consistent with the diachronic data of the park.Under this scenario,the total and proportion of industrial process carbon emissions decrease,and its contribution gradually changes to promote the decrease.Above all,based on the above analysis results,the feasible carbon reduction path of the park is given,including strengthening the low-carbon and high-end investment of the park,optimizing the energy structure including fossil energy structure and electric power structure,promoting the technological innovation and application of the park,accelerating the digitization and intellectualization of the park,introducing downstream carbon sequestration enterprises and exploring the development and deployment of CCUS facilities.These measures can effectively promote the green development of the park,promote the heavy chemical industry to achieve the carbon emission peak at an early date,and make contributions to the national double carbon goal. |
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