Spatial Heterogeneity Of The Impact Of Haze Pollution On Economic Development

The rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization has made China’s economy achieve remarkable development in the world.However,along with the traditional "low efficiency,high input,high emissions,high pollution" development model,China’s environmental pollution is increasingly aggravated,further affecting China’s economic development,the public health of residents and the image of the government.At present,China is in the critical period of shifting from high-speed economic development to high-quality development,facing the dual development demands of stable economic growth and ecological environment improvement.In this context,one of the key strategic directions for the construction of ecological civilization in the 14th Five-Year Plan period is to "promote the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction,promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development,and realize the improvement of ecological and environmental quality from quantitative to qualitative changes".Therefore,clarifying the relationship and spatial heterogeneity of the impact of haze pollution on economic development in China,and further exploring the underlying transmission mechanism and its spatial differences,can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the formulation of differentiated regional environmental management policies.Based on the panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2020,this paper firstly,analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of haze pollution and economic development,and examines the spatial correlation between the two using bivariate spatial autocorrelation.Second,by constructing a spatial Durbin model with two-way fixed effects in time and cities,the impact of haze pollution on economic development in China is clarified,and the heterogeneity of haze pollution affecting economic development in different regions is explored by dividing the regions according to the degree of haze pollution,economic development level and city size.Finally,a mediating effect model is selected to test the mediating effects and mechanisms of urbanization and human capital in the process of haze pollution affecting economic development,and the spatial variability of the transmission mechanism is further explored.The main findings are as follows:(1)China’s economic level continues to rise,haze pollution is fluctuating downward,the spatial correlation between the two is significant,and the economic center of gravity and the haze center of gravity are moving in opposite directions.2003-2020,China’s urban economic development level continues to grow,and spatially it shows a distribution pattern of higher in the east than in the west,and higher in the coast than inland,and urban economic development shows significant agglomeration characteristics,with high and high agglomeration areas in the The Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the Shandong Peninsula,and the central,western and northeastern provinces are the low and low agglomeration areas.During the study period,urban haze pollution in China showed an "M" pattern,with a spatial distribution pattern of "low in the south and high in the north",and a significant agglomeration characteristic of haze pollution,with high agglomeration areas in the central and eastern regions of China,and low agglomeration areas in the The high concentration areas are the central and eastern regions of China,and the low concentration areas are the southeastern coast.The bivariate spatial autocorrelation results show that there is a negative spatial correlation between haze pollution and economic development before 2013,and a positive spatial correlation afterwards.The "high haze pollution-low economic development" agglomeration is located in the central and western regions of China,and the "low haze pollution-high economic development" agglomeration is located in Shanghai and Zhejiang,with the improvement of environmental quality,some cities have changed from high-low agglomeration to low-low agglomeration.According to the center of gravity trajectory model,the center of gravity of economy is located in Fuyang,Zhoukou and Zhumadian,Anhui Province,and the center of gravity of haze is located in Zhoukou,Luohe and Zhumadian,Henan Province,and the center of gravity of haze is located in the northwest direction,and the spatial distance between the center of gravity of haze pollution and the center of gravity of economic development increases and the overlap weakens.After 2010,the consistency index fluctuates more.(2)Haze pollution hinders the development of China’s urban economy,with significant heterogeneity among different regions.At the national level,both the direct and total effects of haze pollution on economic development are significantly negative,but the indirect effects are not significant.Haze pollution hinders the economic development of both southern and northern cities,and this hindering effect is more obvious in northern cities with more severe haze;haze pollution also shows a negative effect on eastern and central cities with relatively high economic development levels,and the negative effect is more obvious for the eastern region,while haze pollution in western and northeastern cities has a positive effect on economic development;haze pollution in medium-sized cities has a negative The negative effect of haze pollution on the local economy in medium-sized cities,the negative effect of haze pollution on the local economic development in large cities is not yet significant,but it can act on neighboring cities through the spatial spillover effect of pollution,and in small cities the two show a positive correlation.(3)Haze pollution hinders urban economic development by affecting the urbanization process and human capital accumulation,and there is spatial heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms in different regions.Among the total effects of haze pollution on economic development,the indirect effects of urbanization and human capital account for 38.02% and 51.19%,respectively.In terms of urbanization transmission mechanism,the inhibitory effect of haze pollution on urban construction in the north is higher than that in the south,and has a greater impact on cities in the east,while the negative effect on cities in the central region is not significant,and the inhibitory effect on large-scale cities is higher than that on mediumscale cities and small cities.In terms of human capital transmission mechanism,the negative effect of haze pollution on human capital accumulation in northern cities is higher than that in the south,and in the eastern region,which has a higher level of economic development,its urban haze pollution is positively related to human capital,while haze pollution significantly reduces human capital accumulation in cities in the central,western and northeastern regions,and this inhibitory effect is more prominent in the western region,and human capital accumulation between different city sizes are all affected by The negative effect of haze is most pronounced in large cities.