Research On Net Carbon Sink Calculation And Emission Reduction Of Planting Industry In Hunan Province

Nowadays,climate warming has become an indisputable fact.Under the call of international organizations,some countries have fulfilled their emission reduction obligations.As a developing country,China has consciously fulfilled its emission reduction obligations,actively determined the emission reduction targets,and put forward the emission reduction targets of "30 and 60" in 2020,which involves all fields.The agricultural system is the second largest carbon emission source in the world,of which the planting industry has the dual attributes of "source" and "sink",It plays a key role in "carbon sequestration and emission reduction" in the system.Therefore,clarifying the relationship between "source" and "sink" can better promote agricultural low-carbon development and help the country achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.This paper mainly analyzes the regional situation of planting industry in Hunan Province,calculates the carbon emission by using the IPCC coefficient method and estimates the carbon sink by referring to the calculation formula of biomass formed by photosynthesis,and then obtains the overall net carbon sink of Hunan Province.Through calculation and analysis,it is obtained that the net carbon sink of planting industry in Hunan Province has increased from 13.96 million tons in 2005 to 17.87 million tons in 2020,showing an increasing trend;Carbon emissions showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,reaching a peak of 15.19 million tons in 2015 and 14.34 million tons in 2020;Carbon sequestration shows an increasing trend,from 28.07 million tons in 2005 to 32.21 million tons in 2020.Based on the calculated carbon emission data,LMDI model is used to decompose the factors affecting the carbon emission increment of planting industry in Hunan Province.The results of the four influencing factors are analyzed.The results show that industrial economic factors and industrial structure factors are the positive driving factors of carbon emission in Hunan Province,Labor force factors and production efficiency factors are negative driving factors,and the overall order of promoting emissions is industrial economic factors > industrial structure factors > labor force scale factors > production efficiency factors.In order to predict the future carbon emissions of Hunan Province,this paper establishes STIRPAT model from the perspective of labor population,technical level,wealth,land and energy,and uses ridge regression method to solve the multicollinearity problem to obtain the corresponding regression equation,Then it analyzes the future development scenario of Hunan Province,divides the carbon emission of Hunan Province into three modes: high-carbon,benchmark and low-carbon,and forecasts the future carbon emission.It is found that the carbon emission of planting industry in Hunan Province shows a downward trend in the future,and the peak has been reached in 2015.Finally,according to the above content,it puts forward targeted policy suggestions for the development of planting industry in Hunan Province.