Health Risk Assessment Of PM_2.5 And O₃ Based On The BenMAP-CE Model

With the rapid socio-economic development,the hazards caused by occupational diseases are becoming more and more complex.Several epidemiological studies have confirmed that PM_2.5 and O₃ cause significant adverse effects on population health.Although a series of national policies and measures have been developed to improve air pollution,the health burden and economic impact of PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China are still very serious compared to other developed countries,especially in economically developed and densely populated areas.Many studies have been conducted at home and abroad to analyze the health effects of PM_2.5 and O₃,but most of them are based on air quality standards,which are too strict and lack of realistic feasibility,and there is a lack of comparative studies of different reduction ratios.Also,it is not clear how PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations and their resulting health effects will change in China under different scenarios in the future.Therefore,the Environmental Benefit Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition（BenMAP-CE）developed by the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency（EPA）was selected for this study,which focuses on the following two aspects:First,this study estimated the avoidable mortality and economic benefits associated when PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations were reduced by 10%,20%and 30%,respectively,and compared the health benefits under different reduction rates in the 13th Five-Year Plan of Shandong Province and Qingdao city.The results of the study showed that:（1）The 30%reduction in PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations is almost the same as that in2020,which is consistent with the final results of the 13th Five-Year Plan.（2）When PM_2.5 concentrations are reduced by 10%,20%and 30%,the avoidable mortality is 2,256,4,728 and 7,461,respectively,and the avoidable economic loss is 160,340,and 530 million Yuan,accounting for 0.024‰,0.051‰,and 0.079‰of GDP,respectively.When the O₃ concentration are reduced by 10%,20%,and 30%,respectively,the avoidable mortality in Shandong province is 4,776,9,586,and 14,432;the avoidable economic loss is 343,689,and 1,037 million yuan,accounting for 0.052‰、1.03‰和1.55‰,respectively.The health benefits under the reduction rates of 10%,20%,and 30%double in turn almost.Second,this study used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th phase（CMIP6）to predict PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations in China from 2020 to 2100 based on different scenarios,and then applied BenMAP-CE to predict the future PM_2.5 and O₃pollution impacts on health,economy,and population aging.The results show that:（1）Under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the annual average PM_2.5 concentrations in China in 2100 will decrease by-50.9%,-32.14%,+25.19%,and-53.87%,respectively,and annual average O₃ concentrations in China in2100 will decrease by-34.62%,-19.87%,+5.50%,and-17.91%,respectively,compared to 2020.34.62%,-19.87%,+5.50%,and-17.91%,respectively,compared to 2020.（2）The avoidable mortality of PM_2.5 under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios will be 2.05,2.84,3.80,and 2.44 million,respectively,of which the aging population will be 0.41,0.57,0.80,and 0.51 million,respectively.The avoidable economic losses will be 2754.22,3828.09,4768.40,and 360.378 million USD,respectively.The avoidable mortality of O₃ under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios will be 2.25,4.52,6.80,and 4.75 million,respectively,of which the aging population will be 0.45,0.99,1.35,and 1.04 million,respectively.The avoidable economic losses will be 2,827.74,5,935.24,8,199.75 and 7,022.47 million USD,respectively.Among them,all scenarios decrease except for the increase in the avoidable mortality in the SSP3-7.0 scenario,but the avoidable mortality of the aging population increases rather than decreases due to the increasing future population aging and the future GDP per capita,and the future avoidable economic loss does not produce a significant decrease.（3）Comparing the health impacts of PM_2.5 and O₃ on Chinese provinces under different scenarios from 2020-2100.By 2100,the avoidable mortality in provinces with high population density and severe air pollution,such as Henan,Guangdong,Shandong,and Hebei,increases under the SSP3-7.0 scenario,while the avoidable mortality in all other Chinese provinces decreases significantly under the other scenarios.This also means that provinces with higher population densities and high air pollution will benefit more from improved air quality.