| The coal resources in Huainan mining area are rich,vegetation is sparse and there are many collapsed waterways.Large-scale and long-time underground coal mining has led to the fragile ecological environment in the mining area,and it is urgent to solve the contradiction between coal development and ecological environmental protection.The analysis of the predictive simulation of spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of vegetation cover in Huainan mining area and the quantitative assessment of its driving factors are of great significance for ecological environmental protection and ecological restoration in the area.This paper selected the Huainan mining area as the research object,the vegetation cover was extracted using 10 periods Landsat multispectral remote sensing images for from 1989-2021 to analyze its spatiotemporal changes and its driving forces,and provided a scientific basis for guided restoration of the ecological environment in the region.Combined with the image element dichotomous model,regression slope,correlation coefficient and vegetation cover grid points in different time series,standard deviation ellipse and center of gravity shift,we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation cover for many years,and correlation analysis of their driving mechanisms in combination with Pearson correlation,and used transfer matrix to analyze the spatiotemporal shift of vegetation cover from 1989-2004,2004-2021 and 2021-2030.The spatiotemporal shifts of vegetation cover from 1989-2004,2004-2021 and 2021-2030were analyzed by using the transfer matrix.A structural equation model was established to quantitatively to analyze the driving factors of vegetation cover,and combining CA-Markov and MCE-CA-Markov models to simulate the predicted spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation cover in 2030,respectively.Its main conclusions were as follows:(1)From 1989 to 2021,the overall vegetation cover in the study area showed a decreasing trend,with rising areas accounting for 36.48%and declining areas accounting for 63.52%,mainly with very low and medium-range changes.From 1989 to 2004,the transfer between vegetation types was significant,in terms of the number of transfers,the high cover type had the most significant transfer in,with an area of 738.52 km~2,and the medium cover type had the most transfer out,with an area of 527.29 km~2.295.90 km~2,205.38 km~2;in CA-Markov in 2021-2030,the highest area of high cover type was transferred out,540.73 km~2,and in MCE-CA-Markov,the highest area of high cover type was transferred out,555.57 km~2.(2)From 1989 to 2021,the migration direction of center of gravity of different types of vegetation cover generally migrated from north to south,and the migration distance of bare soil,low vegetation cover and high vegetation cover varied greatly,migrating 2.52km,2.05 km and 2.52 km respectively;the maximum change in the rotation angle of medium cover type was about 4.64°,while other types were basically about 3°.The short semi-axis of different types of ellipses was stable at about 12 km,but the long semi-axis varied widely,with the long semi-axis basically around 45 km in 2004 and only around38 km in 2021;the azimuthal angle varied widely at 109°-112°.The spatially heterogeneous distribution of vegetation cover was significant and mainly distributed in the southeast direction.(3)The pearson correlation analysis showed that there was a significant spatial heterogeneity of climate and human activities on vegetation cover in the study area,among which human activities were negatively correlated with vegetation cover.Topographic changes caused by coal mining disturbance and water subsidence in land use type transformation were the main drivers of regional vegetation cover evolution,with climate change as a secondary driver.In the Structural Equation Modeling of 2015 and2020,the standardized path coefficients of human activities were-0.11 and-0.39,and the standardized path coefficients of terrain factors were 0.63 and 0.71 in the three driving factor dimensions,respectively,which meant that human activities were the key controlling factor for good vegetation growth,and terrain factors were the biggest influencing factor for vegetation growth,which meant that the"contradiction"between human activities and vegetation growth remains severe.This meant that the"contradiction"between human activities and vegetation growth was still serious.(4)Compared with 2021,the two-forecast simulation resultes of CA-Markov and MCE-CA-Markov in 2030 had higher accuracy and high consistency of spatial effects.CA-Markov predictive simulations found that bare soil and low cover types were mainly concentrated within the mine area,which had been articulated into patches and along the Haile River to the south,and some coastal areas to the east and south,with only a large number of scattered fine patches distributed in other areas.MCE-CA-Markov simulation predicted that with the westward shift of the mining center of gravity,the bare soil type kept expanding actively toward the northwest,and large areas of bare soil and low-cover type patched gather in the Kouzi well field,Banji well field and Yangcun exploration area.Figure[30]Table[9]Reference[110]... |
PDF Full Text Request