Key Drivers Factors And Impact The Effects Of Carbon Emissions In Gansu Electric Power Industry

The massive emission of carbon dioxide has led to increasingly serious ecological and environmental problems and caused huge losses to economic and social development,which has become the focus of global attention.With the rapid development of industrialization,China has become the largest carbon emitter.In order to take the initiative to shoulder the responsibility of dealing with global climate change,China clearly put forward the goal of " carbon peak " in 2030 and " carbon neutrality " in 2060 in 2020.At present,the industry with the largest carbon emission in China is the power industry,and its emission reduction effect is related to the realization of the total emission reduction target.As an important energy base in China and the central hub of the western power grid,the reduction of carbon emissions in the power industry in Gansu Province plays an important role in China ’s timely completion of the " double carbon " goal.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the key driving factors and their effects of carbon emissions in the power industry of Gansu Province,and to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for carbon emission reduction based on the research conclusions.This study comprehensively considers the three perspectives of the production side,supply side and consumption side of the power industry in Gansu Province.Firstly,the carbon emission accounting method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the power industry from 2000 to 2020,and its development characteristics are analyzed.Secondly,using the LASSO model,the driving factors of carbon emissions were screened and identified,and the key driving factors were determined.On this basis,the structural vector regression model(SVAR)combined with impulse response function and variance decomposition technology is used to study the impact of key driving factors on carbon emissions in the power industry.The results show that:(1)The carbon emissions of the power industry in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,but the growth rate gradually slowed down.On the production side,the proportion of clean energy power generation has exceeded thermal power generation,accounting for more than 55 %,while carbon emissions have increased from14.78 Mt in 2000 to 56.80 Mt in 2020,but the growth rate has fluctuated around zero in recent years.On the supply side,the transmission power continues to rise,and the proportion of outgoing power continues to increase.The carbon emission fluctuates greatly in the early stage and tends to be stable in the later stage.On the consumption side,the electricity consumption of the whole society is highly consistent with the development of per capita electricity consumption,and the later rise is large,and it reached the peak(68.81Mt)for the first time in 2013,and then the overall development trend is stable.(2)Identify and determine the key driving factors of carbon emissions in the power industry in Gansu Province,and their impact is different.On the production side,the economic level,energy efficiency,energy structure,power structure and technical level are determined as the key driving factors.It is found that the economic level is the main driving force to promote carbon emissions on the production side,and the LASSO correlation coefficient is as high as 3.6283.On the supply side,the line loss rate,transmission lines,transmission power and electricity trading are determined as the key driving factors.It is found that the line loss rate has a significant negative driving effect on the supply side carbon emissions,and the LASSO correlation coefficient is as high as2.4630.On the consumption side,the economic level,population factor,industrialization level,electricity demand and urbanization level are determined as the key driving factors.It is found that the five driving factors all have a positive driving effect on supply-side carbon emissions.The LASSO correlation coefficient shows that the driving effects of economic level,industrialization level and electricity demand are significant.(3)The short-term impact and contribution of each key driving factor to the carbon emissions of the power industry in Gansu Province have obvious volatility in the short term,and tend to be stable under long-term constraints.On the production side,the volatility of the impact of economic growth and power structure on carbon emissions is similar,showing strong positive effects and weak negative effects under short-term and long-term constraints,respectively,and the contribution rate reached the peak in the first period.The contribution rate of the energy structure reached a peak of 20 % in the second phase,which was more significant.On the supply side,except for the positive effect of electricity trading in the long and short term,the impact of other key driving factors on carbon emissions shows the characteristics of positive and negative alternation.The line loss rate and transmission lines contribute significantly to carbon emissions in the future,reaching more than 10 %;on the consumption side : all key drivers have a positive impact on carbon emissions in the short term.And its contribution rate first rose rapidly and then stabilized.And the contribution rate of electricity demand,economic growth and industrialization level reached more than 20 %.