| Driven by the dual forces of global change and increasing human activities,the transformation and reconstruction of land use are intensifying,leading to a significant decline in the capacity of ecosystems to provide various resources and services.Ecosystem services,as a crucial link between the natural environment and human well-being,have become a focal point of research in various disciplines and sectors.In recent years,with the rapid growth of the population and economy in Central Yunnan,the demand for regional socio-economic development and the bottleneck constraint of land resource supply is not expected to meet.At the same time,as a key region in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and the front-runner of ecological civilization construction,it is one of the regions with the most prominent contradiction between environmental protection and economic development.Therefore,this study takes central Yunnan as the research object,analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use transformation in central Yunnan based on five periods of land use remote sensing data,and estimates the ecosystem services value and spatial divergence characteristics in different periods using the modified ecosystem service value equivalent,and then explores the driving mechanism of its spatial divergence with the help of geographic probes,while using correlation analysis and ecosystem service trade-off synergy.At the same time,the trade-offs and synergistic relationships among ecosystem services were identified through correlation analysis and ecosystem service trade-off synergy from both static and dynamic dimensions.Finally,based on the county scale,the quadrant matching method and coupled coordination model were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecosystem service supply and demand as well as the matching relationship between supply and demand and then proposed ecological management zoning and control measures.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the study period,the spatial pattern of land use in central Yunnan was relatively stable,mainly dominated by forest land,grassland,and cropland.Arable land and grassland showed a continuous decrease,with an average decrease rate of about 0.16%.Construction land and forest land showed a continuous increase,with growth rates of 5.27%and 0.03%,respectively.The comprehensive land use dynamic attitude is increasing,and land development and utilization continue to improve.Arable land is the main contributor to the increase in the area of construction land,contributing an area of 810.69 km~2.(2)The total value of ecosystem services in central Yunnan showed a continuous decreasing trend,with a total decrease of RMB 550 million or 0.18%over the past 20 years,indicating that the ecological environment in the study area tends to be slowly degraded.Woodland is the main contributor of ecosystem services,accounting for more than 71%of the total value,and shows an increasing trend.Among the individual ecological service functions,except for a small increase in raw material production,the remaining eight service functions showed an overall decreasing trend.In terms of spatial distribution,the overall distribution pattern of ecosystem service values is"high in the west and low in the east",with the high-value areas mainly in the western mountainous forest areas and lake and reservoir areas,and the low-value areas mainly in the built-up areas of cities and towns in various districts and counties,and the scope is expanding.(3)The detector analysis revealed that the influence of socio-economic drivers on the spatial variation of ecosystem services in central Yunnan was stronger than that of natural environment drivers,ecosystem services in descending order was:anthropogenic impact index>land use type>GDP per land area>NDVI>population density>slope>elevation>precipitation>temperature.The interaction detection analysis revealed that the interaction of each driver was significantly higher than that of the single factor detection results,with land use type∩anthropogenic impact index being the largest interaction with an explanatory power of 57.23%,followed by NDVI∩anthropogenic impact index with an explanatory power of 56.76%.In the past 20 years,ecological deterioration led to a decrease of 15.681 billion yuan in the value of ecological services,with a total contribution of 82.64%.Forest land degradation,deforestation,and the encroachment of construction land on arable land were the most important reasons for the deterioration of ecological functions.Cross-sensitivity analysis found that ecosystem services were most sensitive to the mutual transformation of cropland and construction land.(4)During the study period,the synergy relationship was the dominant relationship of ecosystem service function in central Yunnan,with a synergistic rate of 65.43%,the subsystem ecosystem service types of regulating and supporting services mainly showed a synergy relationship with other ecosystem service types.The trade-off relationship represented 34.57%and existed mainly between raw material production,the aesthetic landscape,and other ecosystem service types.The interrelations among provisioning,regulating,and supporting services all showed significant positive correlations,and cultural services showed negative correlations with all other three services.The temporal changes of the ecosystem service trade-off synergistic relationship show that the trade-off relationship gradually increases and the synergistic relationship weakens,indicating that the development among ecosystem service functions gradually deviates from the coordination.(5)In the past 20 years,the spatial differences between supply and demand for ecosystem services in central Yunnan have been significant,with the high-value areas of supply concentrated in the western mountainous forested areas and the low-value areas in the built-up areas of towns and counties and those with more concentrated arable land.The demand for ecosystem services is influenced by socio-economic development,with high-value areas for ecosystem services forming in each state and city’s main urban areas,then decreasing toward the periphery.The relationship between supply and demand for ecosystem services is mainly high supply-low demand and low supply-low demand,and the supply-demand relationship is at risk of becoming out of balance. |
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