Does The Relaxation Of Livestock And Poultry Breeding Prohibition And Restriction Policy Increase The Carbon Emission Of Breeding Industry?

In the context of " Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions " and "Carbon Neutral",carbon emission has been a major concern.As an important industry in agricultural and rural development,carbon emissions from livestock and poultry breeding are widely present in all aspects of its production.In order to solve the environmental problems of livestock and poultry breeding,policy of prohibiting and restricting livestock and poultry breeding had been proposed.Since 2014,multiple policy documents have put forward clear requirements for the delineation of prohibited and restricted breeding areas for livestock and poultry,and the environmental protection work of livestock and poultry breeding had also been included in local performance assessments.The implementation of a series of environmental protection policies on livestock and poultry breeding had played a positive role in environmental management,but the implementation status varies from region to region.In some places,the boundaries of prohibited and restricted breeding areas were not clear enough,and they were arbitrarily expanded.In some areas,there was even a "one-size-fits-all" phenomenon,which had affected the livestock and poultry breeding industry.In addition,due to the impact of the "African swine fever" and "pig cycle",the pig breeding industry,which occupies an important position in the livestock and poultry breeding industry,had been severely impacted.In this regard,the relevant departments urgently introduced measures to restore pig production capacity,and urged the local governments and relevant departments to regulate the delineation of prohibited and restricted areas and correct unreasonable prohibited and restricted breeding,and began to reduce livestock and poultry prohibited areas nationwide.After the adjustment of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy,while focusing on the recovery of the pig breeding industry,the ensuing carbon emission problem of pig breeding deserves attention.The object of this paper is the counties,county-level cities and districts under the jurisdiction of seven provinces(cities),namely Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Chongqing,Guangxi,Sichuan and Hainan.These seven provinces(cities)are included in the key development areas of the National Pig Production Development Plan(2016-2020).The method of Propensity Score Matching with Difference in Differences(PSM-DID)was used for empirical analysis in this paper.Firstly,this paper conducted a regression analysis on the impact of the relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy on the carbon emissions of pig breeding.Secondly,by analyzing the impact of relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy on pig production capacity,the mechanism of the impact of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy relaxation on pig breeding carbon emissions is explored.Then,this paper analyzed the inter-regional heterogeneity of the impact of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy relaxation on carbon emissions from pig breeding due to the different levels of regional economic development,the degree of influence by the pig epidemic,and income levels.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for improving the formulation of environmental policies for livestock and poultry breeding,and promoting the coordinated development of the environment and livestock and poultry breeding.The results of the study show that:(1)The relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy did not cause a significant increase in carbon emissions from pig breeding.(2)The relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy also has no significant impact on pig production capacity.Since the calculation of pig breeding carbon emissions is based on production capacity,the reason why the carbon emissions of pig breeding did not change significantly after the relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy is related to the failure of pig production capacity to fully recover.(3)The different levels of economic development between regions,the different degrees of influence by the pig epidemic,and the different levels of per capita disposable income of rural residents also make the relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy have different directions of effect on carbon emissions from pig breeding,but none of the relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy has a significant effect on carbon emissions from pig breeding: In the sample areas,the effect coefficients of relaxation of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy on carbon emissions from pig breeding is negative in areas with higher Regional Gross Product and positive in areas with lower Regional Gross Product;negative in areas with lower impact of pig epidemic and positive in areas with higher impact of pig epidemic;negative in areas with higher per capita disposable income of rural residents and positive in areas with lower per capita disposable income of rural residents.Based on the analysis of research conclusions and the development of livestock and poultry breeding prohibition and restriction policy,as well as the current situation of pig breeding,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)Improve the systematic planning of environmental policies for livestock and poultry breeding to prevent potential risks.(2)Optimize the development mode of livestock and poultry breeding industry and improve the pollution treatment level of farmers.(3)Promote the differentiated development of livestock and poultry breeding according to local conditions.