Land Use Change And Multi-scenario Simulation In Fuzhou City Based On GMOP-PLUS Model

Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC)affects global environmental change and ecosystem cycles,and has become one of the most pressing issues in global change and sustainable development research.As an important part of LUCC research,simulation of future spatial and temporal land use change has also been a core component of land change science and sustainable development science,and model simulation is an important tool for studying land use change mechanisms and predicting future spatial distribution patterns.Exploring the characteristics and patterns of spatial and temporal land use evolution and simulating future land use can provide theoretical basis and practical reference for future regional ecosystem construction and coordinated socio-economic development.Based on this,this paper takes Fuzhou City as the research object,and takes the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020 as the basic data,firstly,it comprehensively analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and causes of various land use/cover types in Fuzhou City from 2000 to 2020;then,it comprehensively selects 10 driving factors and uses the LEAS module of PLUS model to analyze the driving mechanism of each Then,four scenarios of baseline,economic development,ecological protection and sustainable development were set up,and the quantitative structural characteristics of land use under the four scenarios were solved and analyzed by using GMOP and Markov models;finally,on the basis of the simulation accuracy of the PLUS model meeting the requirements,the trends of the spatial and temporal patterns of land use in 2030 were predicted and analyzed.The main research findings are as follows:(1)Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use.The land use in Fuzhou is mainly forest land and arable land,showing the trend of "the area of construction land obviously increases,the area of arable land obviously decreases,and the area of forest land,grassland,water area and unused land is relatively stable".The land use change between 2000 and2020 in the city and Minhou County is more drastic,mainly for the conversion of arable land to construction land and forest land;the land use change between 2010 and 2020 is more intense than that between 2000 and2010.The greater migration of land use gravity in arable land and water areas is mainly attributed to the significant reduction of arable land and the new construction of more wetland parks.(2)Land use change driving mechanism.The main driving factors for the expansion of different land classes differ,and the contribution of each driving factor affecting the expansion of a certain land class also varies.Overall,social factors contribute more to the expansion of each land category than natural factors;distance from settlement and population contribute more to the expansion of land categories;temperature,slope and precipitation contribute relatively less to the development of land categories.(3)Land use quantity structure characteristics under multiple scenarios.Under the base scenario,the land use in Fuzhou in 2030 continues the current development trend,with the area of construction land increasing continuously and the area of other land types decreasing;under the economic development scenario,the area of construction land increases significantly and the amount of arable land decreases sharply;under the ecological protection scenario,the conversion of ecological land to construction land is strictly restricted,and the growth of construction land is low,while forest land and water area both increase compared with 2020;The sustainable development scenario focuses on the protection of arable land,and the reduction rate of arable land is the lowest among the four scenarios,and grassland and watershed produce positive growth.(4)Spatial pattern characteristics of land use under multiple scenarios.First,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2020,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.796,an overall accuracy of 0.88,and a Fo M value of 0.16,indicating that the model can be used to predict the land use distribution in Fuzhou.Then,by analyzing the land use of Fuzhou City in2030 under four scenarios,we found that: under the baseline scenario,the construction land in the central,eastern and southeastern parts of Fuzhou City showed significant expansion,while the arable land area decreased significantly;under the economic development scenario,the construction land in the study area expanded to the surrounding areas to different degrees,while the grassland in the central part and the water area in the southeastern part shrank;under the ecological protection scenario,the municipal district Under the ecological protection scenario,the growth of forested land occurred in the municipal boundary and the northern part of Lianjiang County,and the growth of water area in the southeast was obvious;under the sustainable development scenario,the expansion of construction land and the reduction of cultivated land were most prominent in the southeast,and the grassland in the central part and the water area in the southeast were both expanded.(5)Countermeasures and suggestions for land use structure optimization.Based on the analysis of the land use evolution process in Fuzhou City in the past twenty years and the results of the simulation of the land use pattern in 2030,four suggestions are made: revitalize the urban stock land and promote economical and intensive use;strictly adhere to the red line of basic farmland protection and improve the spatial quality of arable land;strictly protect the natural ecological space and consolidate the results of the ecological restoration project of the national land space;adhere to the coordination of economic,ecological and social benefits Unification,scientific and reasonable use of land resources.