Evaluation Of Intensive Utilization Of Urban And Rural Residential Land Under The "Carbon Dumping And Carbon Neutralization" Concept

The rapidly improving economic level and human production and lifestyle have all led to an increase in carbon emissions.Climate change,extreme weather,and environmental damage caused by carbon emissions have had a great impact on human survival and development.The country and Shandong Province have introduced a series of policies to reduce carbon emissions.Land use change is considered the second largest factor in increasing global atmospheric carbon dioxide content after fossil fuel combustion,with nearly 14% of greenhouse gases being caused by urban and rural residential land use.In the process of urban and rural development,coal,oil and other fossil energy needed for production and life,as well as land use change,all these factors together led to the rapid increase of carbon dioxide emissions.The utilization level of urban and rural residential land will affect the energy consumption and carbon emissions of land resources per unit area.However,there is little research on the relationship between intensive use of urban and rural residential land and carbon emissions at home and abroad.Therefore,this study constructs an evaluation index system for the intensive use of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County under the dual carbon concept,introduces an obstacle model,analyzes the main factors that affect the level of intensive use of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County,quantitatively explores the relationship between intensive use of urban and rural residential land and carbon emissions,and proposes a planning strategy for land intensive use in Yinan County.Firstly,taking Yinan County,Linyi City,Shandong Province as the research object,the total area of arable land,forest land,grassland,construction land,water body,and other land areas were obtained through Arc GIS,and the changes in land area and land transfer were analyzed.Using the IPCC method to estimate carbon emissions during the research period,calculate the carbon emissions of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County from 2011 to 2020,analyze the trend of carbon emissions,and identify the land types that affect carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Yinan County.Secondly,establish an evaluation index system for the intensive use of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County under the dual carbon concept.The traditional intensive use evaluation indicator system only focuses on the input,output and economic benefits of land use,which cannot meet the needs of the dual carbon concept.The concept of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is integrated into the construction of the indicator system.By analyzing the frequency of indicators in the criterion and indicator layers of policy documents and relevant literature,preliminary selection of indicators is conducted to form an indicator database.Based on the actual situation and data availability of Yinan County,some indicators are screened out,and an evaluation index system for the intensive use of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County is constructed under the dual carbon concept.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process,determine the indicator weights and calculate the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County.Finally,in order to study the main factors that affect the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County,an obstacle degree model is introduced to diagnose the obstacle degree factors of the indicators.Based on the data and weight of the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land in Chapter 4,the obstacle degree of the indicator layer indicators in the indicator system is calculated.Finally,the obstacle degree of the criterion layer is obtained to identify the main factors affecting its development.Secondly,quantitative research is conducted on the relationship between the intensive use level of urban and rural residential land and carbon emissions.Unit root tests and cointegration tests are used to verify the hypothesis that the intensive use level of urban and rural residential land and carbon emissions meet the first order single integer sequence and have a long-term equilibrium relationship.At the same time,the EKC curve model is used to fit the two separately,Obtain the quantitative relationship between the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County and carbon emissions,predict the peak of carbon emissions,and discuss the degree of synergy between the two.According to the research,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The main sources of carbon emissions in Yinan County are construction land and arable land;The main sources of carbon sequestration are forest land and water bodies.(2)Yinan County is in a moderate utilization state,and according to the changing pattern,the level of intensive utilization of urban and rural residential areas in Yinan County will continue to fluctuate in the future.(3)In the obstacle factor diagnostic model,the main obstacle factors affecting the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land in Yinan County are grain yield and land input intensity.(4)There is a relatively stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the intensive utilization level of urban and rural residential land and its carbon emissions in Yinan County;The inverted "N" type feature that conforms to the environmental Kuznets curve has a theoretical optimal value of 54.24.