Research On Shale Gas Risk Assessment Based On The DPSIRM-RAGA-PP Model

Shale gas is an important unconventional natural gas resource.Compared with traditional fossil fuels,shale gas is more environmentally friendly.It can help to reduces a country’s overdependence on high-pollution resources.It is a new type of unconventional energy that can change the world’s energy structure.The technically recoverable resources of shale gas in China are 31.5 trillion cubic meters,which ranks China as first in the world.Although shale gas has broad development prospects and great potential value,the development and utilization of shale gas in my country inevitably produces a series of environmental,economic,energy and social risks.These risks have seriously affected the quality and speed of shale gas development in China.Therefore,grasping the risk status in the development process of shale gas is helpful to realize the safe and efficient development and utilization of shale gas.This paper draws on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the construction of energy industry risk index system.According to the basic principles of index system construction,this paper uses the driving force-pressure-state-impact-responsemanagement(DPSIRM)framework to construct a comprehensive risk assessment index system for the shale gas.The original data formed on the basis of this index system contains 6subsystems and 15 subdivision indicators,which are complex high-dimensional data.In order to deal with the high-dimensional,non-normal,and nonlinear complex data,this paper constructs the RAGA-PP model by using the real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm(RAGA)to optimize the projection pursuit(PP)model.The RAGA-PP model not only rank the comprehensive evaluation objects,but also judge the importance of the evaluation index to the comprehensive evaluation result by optimizing the projection direction.It applies no strict requirements for samples,and effectively avoids the shortcomings of slow global optimization speed and premature convergence.It offers significant advantages for the comprehensive evaluation of high-dimensional complex problems.This paper uses the DPSIRM-RAGA-PP model to conduct a risk assessment research on the shale gas in China.The results are as follows.Compared with other areas,Sichuan and Chongqing have the least risk of developing shale gas.Hunan and Inner Mongolia have the greatest risk of developing shale gas,indicating that the development of the shale gas in these two regions is relatively lagging and dangerous.Core technology capability and production cost are the most important factors affecting the risk of shale gas.Based on the factors that have a greater impact on the risk of shale gas and the actual situation of shale gas development in China,this paper gives countermeasures and suggestions for risk control during the development of shale gas.This study provides a practical method for assessing the risks of the shale gas,and provides a reference for proposing more effective measures and policies to mitigate risks in the development of shale gas.