Systematic Analysis And Scenario Simulation Of Ecological Well-being Performance In The Poyang Lake Area

How to maximize human well-being with the least consumption of natural resources and promote sustainable human well-being enhancement are inevitable choices for high-quality development in the context of the new era.This thesis constructed the evaluation index system of ecological well-being performance(EWP)and its system coupling coordination degree in the Poyang Lake Area,and measured the EWP level and system coupling coordination degree of 25 counties(districts and cities)in the Poyang Lake Area from 2007 to 2021.On this basis,the EWP values are combined with the system coupling coordination degree to explore the evolution stages and types of EWP system in the Poyang Lake Area,and the system dynamics method is applied to simulate the evolution process and trend of EWP in the Poyang Lake Area in a scenario.Finally,through the comparative analysis of the development process and the main indicators of EWP of the Great Lakes and the Poyang Lake Area,the successful experience of Great Lakes in improving EWP and the inspiration to Poyang Lake Area are concluded.The main research conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)From 2007 to 2021,the overall EWP of Poyang Lake Area showed an improvement trend,and the efficiency of natural resource consumption into human well-being level was significantly improved.Whether from the perspective of "lakeside-periphery" division or river basin division,the absolute gap between EWP in Poyang Lake Area has shown a narrowing trend.However,it should be noted that the EWP gap between counties in the Poyang Lake Area is still large.(2)From the system perspective,the EWP of the Poyang Lake Area contains four major subsystems: economic subsystem,well-being subsystem,resource subsystem and environmental subsystem.The calculation result of coupling coordination degree shows that the EWP of the Poyang Lake Area from 2007 to 2021 is improving while the four subsystems are becoming more and more coordinated.The EWP system of the Poyang Lake Area has gone through three evolutionary stages of "system degradation","system development" and "system reconstruction",and its25 counties(districts and cities)can be divided into equilibrium type,leapfrog type,locked type and the system reconstruction type.(3)There are complex interactions and feedback relationships among the elements of the EWP system in the Poyang Lake Area,and economic growth and technological progress are the core elements of the EWP system in the Poyang Lake Area.Under the coordinated development scenario,resource consumption and environmental pollution level in the Poyang Lake Area is lower,and the situation that the improvement of residents’ well-being lags behind economic growth is obviously improved,which is the preferred path for sustainable improvement of EWP.The scenario simulation results show that the EWP of the Poyang Lake Area in 2035 will increase to 1.138 times of that in 2021 under the coordinated development scenario.(4)The economic and social development of Great Lakes region has gone through four stages of "slow development-rapid development-decline-revival",while the Poyang Lake Area is entering into a period of rapid development,and the degradation of ecosystem and other factors seriously threaten the sustainable improvement of human well-being in the lake region.The successful experiences of Great Lakes in integrated watershed management,transportation infrastructure construction and industrial structure transformation and upgrading can provide useful insights to the EWP improvement of the Poyang Lake Area.