Research On The Synergistic Effect Of Carbon Emissions And Air Pollutants In The Cement Industry

Response to climate change and environmental quality protection are two major themes in today’s world.Environmental problems caused by greenhouse gases and air pollutants have a negative impact on the sustainable economic and social development of countries around the world.The cement industry is an indispensable basic raw material industry for the joint development of new industrialization and new urbanization,and it is also one of the industrial sectors with the largest emissions of CO2 and air pollutants.Under the dual background of dual carbon target constraints and ecological environment protection,the environmental standards of the cement industry are becoming increasingly strict,the number of restrictive environmental indicators is increasing,and the multiobjective coordinated control of the environment is becoming more and more complex.The cement industry should not only consider the realization of single-media environmental goals,but also consider the coordinated control of multi-media environmental goals.Carbon emissions from the cement industry and air pollutants have a strong emission homology and control measures have the same effect.Carry out research on the synergistic effect of carbon emissions and air pollutants in the cement industry,and realize synergistic control strategies by selecting advanced and applicable technologies and formulating systematic policy measures.Not only can it combine the dual benefits of short-term environmental quality improvement and long-term climate change mitigation,but it can also help reduce policy costs and economic development impacts,and is of great significance in promoting a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study focuses on the synergistic effect of carbon emissions and air pollutants in the cement industry in Shandong Province.Considering the economic and social macro characteristics of Shandong Province and the driving factors of the end demand of the cement industry,a cement demand model is constructed to predict the demand for cement products in Shandong Province under different constraints.Coupling the regional development attributes and control technology characteristics of the cement industry in Shandong Province to establish a collaborative emission reduction scenario to simulate the future trend of CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the cement industry.From the perspectives of technical effect,structural effect and comprehensive effect,the synergistic effect of carbon emissions and air pollutants in the cement industry in Shandong Province is decomposed and studied by referring to the synergistic effect index.From the perspective of energy-saving technology,the multi-objective environmental synergy benefit analysis of green technology is carried out by using the energy-saving supply curve model.Based on the above research results,a collaborative governance path for carbon emissions and air pollutants in the cement industry in Shandong Province is proposed.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Different economic and social development paths will have an uncertain impact on cement demand forecasting.Under the low demand scenario and the medium demand scenario,the cement demand in Shandong Province has reached the historical peak point of 164.06 Mt in 2014,and the per capita cement consumption is 1.67 t.In 2035,the cement demand in Shandong Province will be 91.35 Mt and 101.95 Mt respectively.Under the high demand scenario,during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,Shandong Province will usher in the peak of industrialization and urbanization planning cycle construction.The cement demand in Shandong Province will reach a historical peak of 166 Mt in 2021,and the per capita cement consumption will be 1.63 t.Influenced by saturation effects such as construction area,urbanization process,and low population growth,the cement demand in Shandong Province in 2035 will be 116.62 Mt.(2)If the cement system in Shandong Province develops according to the current policy and technology scenarios,it will inevitably increase the pressure on energy supply and pollutant emission reduction.Under the reference scenario,the energy consumption of the cement industry in Shandong Province in 2035 is 8.07 Mtce,and the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOX,and PM10 are 59.54 Mt,54.59 Mkg,64.65 Mkg,and 63.7Mkg,respectively.Improving the penetration rate of green technology in the cement industry is the most effective way to reduce CO2 and air pollutant emissions.Under the technical emission reduction scenario,the energy consumption of the cement industry in Shandong Province in 2035 is 5.18 Mtce,and the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOX,and PM10 are51.88 Mt,37.34 Mkg,44.34 Mkg,and 58.45 Mkg,respectively.Relatively high capacity reduction intensity and green technology penetration rate are conducive to curb energy consumption and energy intensity,and at the same time significantly reduce CO2 and air pollutant emissions.Under the comprehensive emission reduction scenario,the energy consumption of the cement industry in Shandong Province in 2035 is 4.53 Mtce,and the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOX,and PM10 are 45.36 Mt,32.64 Mkg,38.76 Mkg,and 51.1Mkg,respectively.(3)There are differences in the constraints of different scenarios in the cement industry,and the corresponding synergistic effects of CO2 and air pollutants are also heterogeneous.Structural effect and comprehensive effect are the main factors affecting the synergistic emission reduction of CO2,SO2 and NOX in the cement industry in Shandong Province.The technical effect and comprehensive effect are the main factors affecting the synergistic emission reduction of CO2 and PM10 in the cement industry in Shandong Province.Structural effect and technical effect are the main factors affecting the synergistic reduction of CO2 and air pollutants in the cement industry in Shandong Province.(4)Energy security and environmental capacity constraints pose serious challenges to sustainable development.From 2020 to 2035,the total energy-saving potential of the30 green technologies is 40.35 Mtce,which is equivalent to 74.89% of the total energy consumption of the cement industry in Shandong Province during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period,and the synergistic emission reduction potentials of CO2,SO2,NOX and PM10 in the cement industry are 143.59 Mt,349.13 Mkg,397.91 Mkg and 103.42 Mkg,respectively.The cement industry in Shandong Province should give priority to promoting 25 green technologies such as low-temperature waste heat power generation technology,high solid-gas ratio cement suspension preheating decomposition technology,and using blast furnace slag as an alternative raw material for cement production,which are both energy-saving and emission reduction dual benefits and environmental synergy benefits.In the short term,the technical path of collaborative control of CO2 and air pollutants in cement industry in Shandong Province is based on improving energy efficiency and upgrading of process equipment,and in the long term,the technology of comprehensive utilization of resources and energy is of great significance to improve the level of green and low-carbon development of cement industry.