Spatial-temporal Evolution Of Carbon Emissions And Its Influencing Factors In China Central Region Based On NPP-VIIRS Data

Since the advent of the new century,China has achieved fruitful economic results as a fast-growing economy.However,it is among the developing countries and a superpower in size.Today,we face rapid changes in society and the massive improvement in the ecological environment and living environment,resulting in an insufficient supply of resources,increased emissions,and overwhelmed environmental carrying capacity.In 2012,the International Energy Agency announced that China’s primary energy carbon dioxide emissions contributed 28.8% of the world’s total,making it the world’s largest carbon emitter.China’s overall economic development level is far from reaching the average level of developed countries.The adverse effects and emission reduction pressure from high emissions continue to intensify,and there is an urgent need to find factors and methods related to emission reduction.This paper uses the emission inventory method and highprecision urban night lighting data to calculate the provincial energy consumption carbon emissions and downscale fitting,explores the temporal and spatial distribution law of urban energy consumption carbon emissions,expounds its temporal and spatial variation characteristics in the past nine years,and comprehensively uses a variety of analysis methods: geographic information analysis method,spatial autocorrelation analysis method,Markov transfer matrix,to analyze the characteristic spatial changes and spatial aggregation characteristics of energy consumption carbon emissions in central China from2012 to 2020.LMDI decomposition and geographic detectors were used to analyze its influencing factors.Key findings of the study:(1)From 2012 to 2020,the total carbon emissions of energy consumption in the central region increased yearly,from 3,482,424,000 tons in 2012 to 4,633,499,000 tons of energy consumption carbon emissions in 2020.Shanxi Province is the province with high carbon emissions from energy consumption in the central region.Henan Province ranks second in terms of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the central region.The central region has relatively low carbon emissions from Anhui,Hunan,Hubei,and Jiangxi provinces.At the same time,the distribution of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the six provinces in the central region is similar.That is,the cities with higher carbon emissions in each province are primarily provincial capitals and cities around provincial capitals.(2)From the results of spatial autocorrelation analysis,the confidence level of energy consumption carbon emissions in central China from 2012 to 2020 is greater than 99%,which has a particular aggregation distribution.The distribution of carbon emissions from energy consumption is characterized by high concentration in areas mainly distributed in Shanxi Province.The distribution of carbon emissions from energy consumption is characterized by low and low agglomeration areas,mainly distributed in Anhui,Hubei,Hunan,and Jiangxi Provinces.The spatial aggregation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the central region weakened,and the area of high and high aggregation characteristics decreased from 210742.9km2 to 153999.3km2.(3)According to the results of the Markov transfer probability matrix,it can be seen that from 2012 to 2020,the probability of energy consumption carbon emission level shifting to a higher carbon emission level is greater than the probability of transferring to a lower carbon emission level.The probability of stability of energy consumption carbon emission types III.(0.5-10,000 tons),IV.(1-30,000 tons)and V.(3-50,000 tons)are low,and there is a greater possibility of transferring to types with higher carbon emissions from energy consumption.(4)Through the results of LMDI decomposition analysis,it can be seen that the population scale effect has a negligible effect on the carbon emissions of energy consumption in all provinces in the central region.Economic development significantly impacts energy consumption and carbon emissions in central provinces.Energy consumption has a restraining effect on carbon emissions of energy consumption in various provinces in the central region.The impact of the energy structure on energy consumption and carbon emissions in six provinces in the central region is unstable.Economic development is the main reason for the growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption in six provinces in the central region.(5)From the results of geographic detector analysis,it can be seen that the economic factors have greater explanatory power on the carbon emission impact factors of each province in the central region,namely regional GDP and secondary GDP.The two-factor interaction with the high explanatory power of carbon emission factors in central China’s provinces is primarily economic factors.