Evaluation Of The Efficiency Of Carbon Quota Allocation In China’s Thermal Power Industry

Because of its abundant coal resources,China relies primarily on thermal power generation.According to the "2020-2021 National Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast Report" issued by the China Electricity Council,our country’s thermal power generation capacity in 2020 will be 1.25 billion kilowatts,accounting for 56.8% of the total.86.4% are coal-fired power plants,which emit large amounts of CO It is essential to develop feasible carbon quotas for the high carbon emitting thermal power generation industry in order to achieve the "30-60" dual carbon goal.Based on this,this paper forecasts several indicators of the thermal power industry in 2030 and evaluates the efficiency of carbon quota allocation in China’s thermal power industry in 2030 to serve as a reference for the development of China’s thermal power industry.Based on the measured carbon emissions of the thermal power industry in each province,combined with relevant national policies and some reasonable assumptions,this paper determines the reference carbon quotas for the thermal power industry in each province in 2030 based on the historical emissions method.Next,an Improved grey prediction model is constructed to forecast data for four indicators of the thermal power industry,showing good results in accuracy tests and the forecast results can be used in subsequent studies;the efficiency of carbon allocation in thermal power generation in 2030 is assessed and examined using the ZSG-DEA model Seven iterations were used to reallocate the initial carbon allocation so that the efficiency of carbon allocation in thermal power generation in all 30 provinces reached the effective frontier surface.However,considering that carbon allocation based on the efficiencyfirst principle alone would put too much pressure on carbon emission reductions in some provinces with low carbon allocation efficiency,an entropy-based carbon allocation equity model was also introduced and carbon allocation was based on the equity principle.Finally,the two were combined with each other and their methods were analysed comparatively.Initial carbon allocation efficiency measurements for 2030 show that there are significant disparities in carbon allocation efficiency between provinces in China,and analysis by regionalisation indicates that the reasons may be related to geographical location,technological level,economic development,etc.Redistribution of carbon allocations through the ZSG-DEA model is a good way to The efficiency of carbon allocation in inefficient provinces can be effectively improved.The 16 provinces in the economically less developed mid-west of China with relatively low carbon allocation efficiency,such as Hebei and Anhui,need to reduce their carbon allocation when allocated efficiently by the ZSG-DEA model,while the 14 provinces with relatively developed economies and high carbon allocation efficiency,such as Guangdong and Shandong,need to Carbon emission quotas need to be increased.Carbon allocation based on different single fair allocation indicators will result in significant differences in allocation outcomes.In other words,a single fair allocation indicator has certain limitations,while a comprehensive fair allocation model can solve the above problems.Considering the balance between efficiency and equity in carbon allocation,and considering that the full realisation of efficiency allocation in the short term would put significant emission reduction pressure on provinces with low efficiency in carbon allocation,countries can gradually increase the weight of efficiency allocation in the process in recent years.