Spatial Distribution And Health Effects Of Ozone Pollution In The Greater Bay Area Based On Spatial Grid Scale

In recent years,with the rapid urban development,a large amount of ozone precursor pollutants such as VOCS and NOX have been emitted into the air,and ozone pollution is deteriorating day by day,bringing serious impacts to the environment and human body.It is important to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of ozone pollution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,to analyze the effects of anthropogenic emission reduction measures and meteorological factors on ozone pollution from a macroscopic perspective,to assess the effects of ozone pollution on human health,to systematically understand the health effects of ozone pollution,and to designate targeted prevention and control countermeasures for the region.Therefore,taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the study area and ozone pollution as the research object,firstly,based on the air monitoring station data and OMI satellite data from 2013-2021,and the descriptive statistical analysis of model parameters for the ground monitoring station data and OMI satellite remote sensing data,followed by the estimation of Arc GIS10.8 software to plot and analyze the 2013-2021 The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of annual,seasonal and monthly average ozone pollution concentrations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area were then quantitatively evaluated using KZ（Kolmogorov-Zurbenko）filtering and multiple linear regression models to assess the relative effects of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological factors on O₃concentrations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area,and finally combined with map information,population data,and health impact functions using Ben MAP-CE software for health impact assessment and economic benefit estimation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Using OMI satellite remote sensing data,the spatial distribution of atmospheric ozone column concentrations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from2013 to 2021 was studied,and the ozone column concentrations were divided into five concentration classes:low value area,sub-low value area,medium value area,sub-high value area and high value area,and it was found that from 2013 to 2017,the air quality showed an overall trend of high north and low south,and the high value area was mainly concentrated in the southwest of Jiangmen and cities around the mouth of the Pearl River,and after 2018,the area of the low value area gradually expanded,indicating that the measures to reduce ozone pollution in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao have been effective.（2）In addition,it was found that the sum of the variance of the three components,short-term component,seasonal component and long-term component,contributed 83%-94%to the variance of the original time series,indicating that the KZ filter has a good serial decomposition ability for O₃concentration in each city.By calculating the contribution of each component to the total variance,it can be seen that the short-term component contributes the most to the total variance in most cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area,followed by the seasonal component,and then the long-term component;this indicates that the fluctuations in the original time series are dominated by the short-term component and supplemented by the seasonal component,i.e.,they are mainly influenced by the short-term and seasonal changes of pollutant emissions and meteorological conditions.（3）Using Ben MAP-CE as a platform to assess the health effects of ozone pollution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,overall,the number of premature deaths showed a fluctuating upward trend,with the number of all-cause premature deaths decreasing year by year between 2013 and 2015,and after 2015,the number of all-cause premature deaths showed a trend of first increasing,then decreasing,and then increasing.Spatially,the high value areas of various types of premature deaths are mainly located in the more densely populated areas in the center of the Greater Bay Area,and the number of people spreads to the peripheral areas gradually decreases.2013-2021 ozone pollution health economic loss values in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area are 726.942billion yuan,738.19 billion yuan,45.142 billion yuan,550.706 billion yuan,657.766 billion yuan,670.163 billion yuan,577.529 billion yuan,428.852 billion yuan and 548.143 billion yuan,showing a trend of year-on-year fluctuation and increase.In the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao city cluster,the largest loss is the Macao Special Administrative Region,followed by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,while in the Pearl River Delta city cluster,the economic loss of Shenzhen and Dongguan is larger.Due to the rapid economic development of Hong Kong and Macao and the higher level of per capita disposable income in comparison,the mean value of their health economic loss is at a high value overall.