| In recent years,the ozone pollution due to accelerated urbanization and industrialization,especially summer ozone,has drawn a widespread attention from all sectors of society.Related studies are mainly focused on Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions,but there are few studies in the Central Plains region,represented by Henan Province.Based on observed O3 concentrations,meteorological and population data of Henan Province from 2016 to 2019,this study has mainly investigated the pollution characteristics,attribution factors and spatial autocorrelation of ozone in Henan Province from 2016 to 2019.the effects of meteorological factors on ozone concentration have been analyzed by using the multiple linear regression method.Finally population health impact and health economic losses of ozone exposure in Henan Province have been studied.The ozone pollution characterization study in this thesis shows that various air pollutants in Henan Province were log-normally distributed within the study period,and concentration of O3 showed negative correlation with PM2.5,PM10,SO2 and NO2.The annual average O3 concentration in Henan Province increased from 100.69 μg/m3 to 110.02 μg/m3 from 2016 to 2019,the highest monthly average O3 concentration occurred in June,with concentrations of 172.67 μg/m3,178.67 μg/m3,179.01 μg/m3,and 182.51μg/m3,and the lowest concentration occured most frequently in December to February.In opposite,the concentration of other pollutants showed a "U" trend,and the R2 of the fitted curves of ozone and other pollutants were 0.6345,0.1889,0.6829 and 0.4966,respectively,which passed the significance test.The daily variation of O3 concentration showed an obvious single-peak variation,with the valley at 7:00-8:00 am and the peak at 14:00-16:00 am.The seasonal average concentrations of ozone in Henan Province in decending order are summer>spring>autumn>winter,and ozone concentration in summer and spring showed an obvious seasonal distribution characteristics with low in the south and high in the north.The global Moran’s I indices of ozone pollution were 0.742,0.749,0.87,and 0.974,respectively,which showed extremely strong spatial clustering characteristics in the urban regions.From the multiple linear regression analysis,factors with positive impacts on ozone concentration were temperature,wind speed,population size,GDP per capita,share of secondary industry output in GDP,SO2 emissions,industrial soot emissions,and total social electricity consumption,with regression coefficients of 0.795,0.103,0.267,0.184,0.119,0.122,0.299,and 0.043.The factors with negative impacts on ozone concentration were relative humidity,precipitation,and annual average PM2.5 concentration,with regression coefficients of-0.230,-0.139,and-0.330,respectively.Relative humidity of 60%and wind speed of 2-2.5 m/s were found to be the critical points of ozone pollution occurance,and the highest O3 exceedance rate took place when the relative humidity was 60%-80%and wind speed was 2-2.5 m/s.high concentrations of ozone pollution were more likely to occur with the south and southeast wind directions in both summer and winter.The population health impacts and health economic loss due to ozone pollution have been assessed by using exposure response model(IER),the result shows that,total death toll due to ozone exposure in Henan Province within 2016-2019 were 3401(95%CI:3062,3740),5142(95%CI:4546,5719),5335(95%CI:4772,5898),and 5442 cases(95%CI:4565,5918),accounted for 0.455%,0.687%,0.714%,and 0.728%of the total number of deaths,respectively.All-cause mortality(Total)health economic loss in RMB due to ozone exposure in Henan Province in 2016-2019 was 2.285 billion(95%CI:2.051,25.06),3.753billion(95%CI:33.16,41.75),4.233 billion(95%CI:3.769,46.59),and 4.345 billion(95%CI:38.80,50.29).Within the ozone caused deseases,cardiovascular disease(CVD)accounted for a higher proportion in all-cause mortality than chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and respiratory disease(RD). |
