Research On The Effect Of The Tradable Green Certificate Policy Based On Imperfectly Competitive CGE Model

In recent years,carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy consumptions have caused a variety of environmental problems.As the largest carbon emitter in the world,China has actively formulated and implemented a series of policies to achieve emission reductions and support the development of renewable energy,and the Renewable Portfolio Standard（RPS）is one of the important policies to promote the development of renewable energy.China has formally implemented the RPS in 2019,and the Tradable Green Certificate system under the RPS in 2021.However,considering few years since the two policies were implemented,there are few researches on the policy effect of the Tradable Green Certificate policy,which has therefore become an important topic in the current research on its system.In this paper,a CGE model is built,and a green certificate transaction module is constructed according to relevant government documents.Then,the imperfectly competitive improvement to the CGE model is achieved based on the theory of imperfectly comprtitive market,lerner index,and the principle that the elasticity of substitution of the Amington compound process can be equivalently replaces the price elasticity of demand.Finally,the imperfectly competitve CGE mosel is used to simulate the policy effects of the TGC on China’s economy,energy,and environment.Results show that in terms of the economy,China’s real GDP will decrease by 2.97–5.15%due to the TGC.Except the apparent increase in outputs of the WIN sector and the PH sector,there will be different degrees of output loss in other energy production sectors and energy-intensive sectors.In terms of the energy,the implementation of the TGC will reduce the consumption of the thermal power and fossile energies,promote the development of the wind power and the photovoltaic power,and increase the share of renewable energy consumption by 2.57–5.71%.In terms of the environment,the TGC will reduce China’s total carbon dioxide emissions by 18.36–19.96billion tons in 2035.CO₂ reductions in THM sector and energy-incentive sectors like CMW,STE,CHEM are more apparent.In general,the implementation of the TGC policy will exacerbate the volatility of economic indicators,benefit the optimization of the energy structure,and promote the emission reduction of high-carbon emission enterprises in China with the increase in the weight of consumption responsibility.Therefore,it is suggested that each responsible subject of consumption can only complete the minimum consumption responsibility through green certificate transaction to ensure stable economic growth.But if higher environmental benefits are pursued,the target of stimulating consumption can be pursued appropriately.The traditional CGE model is optimized by introducing the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market so that the model simulation results are closer to the reality,and a theoretical reference are provided for CGE modelers to describe the characteristics of imperfect competition in the research industry.According to the relevant policy documents issued by China,the green certificate transaction module is designed to be incorporated into the CGE framework,which has certain reference value for scholars in the field of compulsory green certificate transaction policy effect research.The simulation results have certain reference for the improvement of the green certificate transaction policy.guiding significance.