Research On Investment Value Evaluation Of H Company’s M Coal Chemical Project Based On Real Option Method

In the process of China’s economic development,coal is not only the main basic energy,but also an important industrial raw material.The coal chemical industry,which produces raw materials based on coal,has a very important strategic significance for ensuring China’s economic prosperity,energy security,and national defense construction.In the current context of promoting the green and low-carbon development of the coal industry and improving the level of coal refined utilization,The importance of coal chemical industry for China is self-evident.However,as a resource,technology,and capital intensive industry,the coal chemical industry usually has characteristics such as high risk and high uncertainty.Due to the lack of attention to project investment flexibility and management flexibility,traditional economic evaluation methods based on the net present value method often ignore the uncertain value,which seriously underestimates the project investment value.Therefore,how to scientifically and effectively evaluate the investment value of coal chemical projects is an important issue that needs to be urgently solved in the investment decision-making process of coal chemical projects.This is not only of great significance for the development of the coal chemical industry,but also a practical issue that many investors focus on.This thesis mainly takes coal chemical projects as the research object,aiming at the problems existing in traditional economic evaluation methods represented by the net present value method,and introduces the real option theory into the field of investment decision-making for coal chemical projects.Firstly,it is analyzed that the application of real option theory in the investment evaluation of coal chemical projects is both necessary and feasible.Secondly,based on the real option perspective,it is analyzed that the investment value of coal chemical projects should include two parts: traditional net present value and real option value.Then,in view of the limitations of traditional net present value methods,a real option pricing model applied to coal chemical projects is introduced,on this basis,a fuzzy real option model applied to coal chemical projects is further proposed.Specifically,taking the M coal chemical project of H Company as an example,the investment value of M coal chemical project of H Company is evaluated and analyzed based on the real option method,and the practical application of the real option theory in coal chemical projects is fully studied,providing application reference and theoretical support for other companies when evaluating the investment value of coal chemical projects.In the case of the M coal chemical project of H Company,after identifying that it has significant expansion options,this article uses the traditional net present value method,the conventional real option model,and the fuzzy real option model to evaluate and analyze the investment value of the project,and conducts a comparative analysis of their respective evaluation results.Research has shown that traditional net present value methods can seriously underestimate the value of coal chemical projects.Compared to conventional real option models,although they can compensate for the shortcomings of ignoring uncertain values,they require higher accuracy in the value of model parameters.Fuzzy real option models obtain the range of project investment value by fuzzifying key parameters,which can enable investment decision-makers to have a fuller understanding of the distribution of project value and achieve a more realistic assessment.In addition,by studying the impact of various parameter variables in the real option model on the value of real options,this paper finds that only the option strike price has a negative correlation with the value of real options,while other variables have a positive correlation with the value of real options.The degree of influence of each parameter variable on the value of real options ranges from the largest to the smallest in order: the value of the underlying asset,the exercise price of the option,volatility,the expiration time of the option,and the risk-free interest rate.Moreover,the first two variables have a much greater impact on the value of real options than the last three.Therefore,when using the real option method to evaluate and analyze coal chemical projects,it is necessary to attach great importance to the value of the underlying assets and the exercise price of options in order to better make investment decisions on coal chemical projects.