Establishment And Application Of Comprehensive Risk Assessment Index System For Environmental Health In China

Objective:Construct a set of index system that can assess the comprehensive risk of environmental health in China,apply the system constructed to evaluate the current situation of comprehensive environmental health risk in various provinces in China from2015 to 2019,analyze and compare the differences in risk pressure,risk status and risk response ability faced by various provinces,and provide theoretical basis for relevant departments to formulate scientific and reasonable environmental health policies.Methods:1.In this study,taking"pressure-state-response"as the basic framework,a total of 22 indicators in three categories were selected to constitute the comprehensive risk assessment index system of environmental health in China.Among them,the most important is the risk status indicator,with a weight value of 0.4433,followed by the risk pressure indicator（0.3164）and the risk response indicator（0.2403）.Among the indicators that characterize risk pressure,the proportion of air quality reaching or better than the second level is the most important index,followed by the annual average concentration of PM₁₀,population mortality and O₃annual average concentration,and the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP and fiscal energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure to GDP are the most important indicators in the risk response indicators.2.The comprehensive risk of environmental health in 30 provinces across the country was evaluated,and the results showed that Shanghai had the highest risk from2015 to 2017 and Shandong Province had the highest comprehensive risk from 2018 to2019.In 2015,Yunnan Province had the lowest comprehensive risk of environmental health,and Qinghai had the lowest comprehensive risk from 2016 to 2019.3.The environmental health risks of each province in the country can be divided into 5 levels according to the Jenks evaluation scale standard.Among them,the provinces located in high-risk areas from 2015 to 2019 were Tianjin,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Shandong,and the provinces located in low-risk areas were Yunnan and Qinghai.4.Cluster analysis of risk pressure,current situation and response index of 30 provinces in China,and divide the provinces into four types,（1）high risk pressure,poor risk status quo,and poor risk response ability,such as Shandong.（2）Risk pressure is high,the status quo is poor,and the ability to respond is better,such as Shanghai.（3）The risk pressure is small,and the risk status and response ability are average,such as Anhui,Chongqing,etc.（4）The risk pressure is relatively general,the status quo is better,and the response ability is average,such as Fujian,Guizhou,Yunnan,etc.Results:1.Based on the general idea of"pressure-state-response"model,a comprehensive environmental health risk assessment index system is constructed for each province in China,which contains 22 indicators in 3 categories.The weight of risk pressure indicators,risk status indicators and risk response indicators are 0.3164,0.4433and 0.2403,respectively.The weight of wastewater emission per unit area and industrial nitrogen oxide emission per unit area in pressure indicators is relatively large,and the proportion of days with air quality reaching or better than level 2,annual average concentration of PM₁₀,population mortality rate and annual average concentration of O₃account for a larger weight of the status quo.The weight of risk is larger,and the proportion of total health costs to GDP and the proportion of fiscal energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure to GDP account for a larger weight of risk response.2.The province with the largest comprehensive environmental health risk in2015-2017 is Shanghai,and the highest comprehensive risk in 2018-2019 is Shandong Province.3.The smallest comprehensive environmental health risk in Yunnan Province in2015,and the comprehensive risk in Qinghai in 2016-2019 lowest.3.the environmental health risks of provinces nationwide can be classified into 5 levels according to the Jenks evaluation scale.Among them,the provinces that are all located in high risk areas from2015 to 2019 are Tianjin,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Shandong,and the provinces that are all located in low risk areas are Yunnan and Qinghai.4.Cluster analysis of the risk pressure index,status quo index and response index of 31 provinces nationwide,combined with the actual situation,classifies the provinces nationwide into four major types,（1）high risk pressure,poor risk status quo and risk response capability poorer.For example,Shandong.（2）High risk pressure,poor risk status quo,and good risk coping ability.Representative cities such as Shanghai.（3）Less risk pressure,average risk status,and average risk response capability.Representative cities such as Anhui,Chongqing,etc.（4）More average risk pressure,better risk status quo,and average risk coping ability,representative cities such as Fujian,Guizhou,Yunnan,etc.Conclusions:1.In this paper,3 first-level indicators and 22 second-level indicators of risk pressure index,risk status index and risk response index were selected to establish a national comprehensive environmental health risk assessment index system.2.This study systematically evaluates the comprehensive environmental health risk of various provinces in the country through the application of the evaluation system,and the larger the comprehensive environmental health risk index,the higher the environmental health risk.According to the current situation of different risks in different regions,reasonable response plans are proposed.3.Through cluster analysis of the risk pressure index,status quo index and response index of each province,the provinces in the country are divided into four types according to the actual situation.According to the type characteristics of each region,it is beneficial to the classification and management of environmental health in each region.