Impact Of Digital Economy Development On Urban Carbon Emissions:Mechanisms And Effects

Climate change has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events,posing a serious challenge to the sustainable development of human society.China’s rapid economic development has also brought about many ecological problems,especially in the areas of energy consumption and carbon emissions.Since 2006,China’s total carbon emissions have long ranked first in the world(Mc Kinsey Global Institute,2019).Faced with enormous pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction and international public opinion,China has a long way to go to reach its peak carbon neutral goal and urgently needs to find new ways to reduce emissions.In recent years,the digital economy,represented by a new generation of high technology such as the Internet of Things,Artificial Intelligence and Big Data,has developed rapidly in China,driving rapid changes in production and lifestyle,and becoming a new engine for high-quality economic development.With its low emission,high output and strong penetration,the digital economy has provided new ideas for low carbon emission reduction in cities and become an important grasp for the next phase of ecological and environmental governance in China.According to a study by the World Economic Forum(2017),the digital transformation of various industries can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 12.1 billion tons by 2030,and giving full play to the ecological optimization of the digital economy is crucial to the successful achievement of the carbon peak and neutrality targets.Based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars on the connotation,form,characteristics and measurement methods of digital economy,this paper firstly constructs a digital economy development measurement system and evaluates the development level of digital economy at the prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2019.Combined with urban carbon emission data,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of digital economy development and carbon emission in Chinese cities are analyzed.Secondly,the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is used as the theoretical basis,and the impact of digital economy on urban carbon emissions is decomposed by combining the own characteristics of digital economy,and the mechanism of the effect of digital economy on urban carbon emissions is clarified.Then,carbon emission intensity is used as the explanatory variable to test the carbon emission effect of digital economy empirically,and heterogeneity analysis is made according to the size of cities,their regions and existing carbon emission intensity,and the reliability of research findings is confirmed by robustness test.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical studies,policy recommendations for relying on the digital economy to help cities reduce carbon emissions are proposed based on the main findings of the study.The results of the study show that(1)the level of digital economy development in Chinese cities has steadily increased,but the "digital divide" among cities has initially emerged.The average total carbon emission of each city is on the rise,while the average carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year.The level of urban carbon emission are highly correlated with economic development,population size,and industrial structure.(2)At the theoretical level,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of digital economy on urban carbon emissions and finds that digital economy mainly affects urban carbon emission intensity through three intermediate channels: scale effect,structural effect and technology effect.(3)The results of the empirical analysis show that digital economy development has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and every 1% increase in the index of urban digital economy development can reduce urban carbon emission intensity by about 0.365%,and this conclusion is still robust after changing the measurement of core variables.Further analysis reveals that,at this stage,although the digital economy cannot significantly reduce the total carbon emissions of cities,it can reduce the carbon emissions intensity by promoting the economic development of cities.(4)In terms of the mechanism of action,the empirical study finds that the development of the digital economy on the one hand raises the demand for electricity in cities and pushes up the carbon emission intensity of cities,and on the other hand also promotes the economic growth of cities through stimulating the scale of consumption,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and upgrading the level of technological innovation,which in turn has a suppressive effect on the carbon emission intensity of cities,but the suppressive effect of the technology effect of the digital economy on the carbon emission intensity is not as significant as other.(5)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon emission reduction effect of digital economy development is more obvious for small and medium-sized cities,eastern regions,and cities with high carbon emission intensity.Further analysis shows that the consumption scale promotion effect,industrial structure upgrading effect,and technology innovation effect brought by digital economy development in small and medium-sized cities are more obvious compared with othersized cities,and play a prominent role in suppressing urban carbon emission intensity.The development of digital economy in the eastern region can achieve total carbon emission control while promoting economic development,and make joint efforts to reduce urban carbon emission intensity at the carbon emission and economic output ends.The development of digital economy has a stronger inhibiting effect on the emission intensity of high carbon emission cities,and the development of digital economy can be an effective means to limit the high carbon emission intensity of cities.In view of the above research findings,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations in accelerating the construction of digital economy infrastructure in cities,narrowing the digital economy gap between regions,improving the efficiency of electricity consumption in digital industries,and promoting the digital transformation of industries,which provide some insights to promote the green and high-quality development of cities and help achieve the carbon peak and neutrality targets.