Analysis And Prediction Of CO2 Emission Calculation Models In The Steel Industry

The steel industry is a pillar industry in China’s industry,accounting for approximately 5%of China’s GDP.The steel industry plays an extremely important role in social construction,economic development,and maintaining employment stability.It covers a wide range of fields,has a high degree of correlation with other industries,and has a strong ability to stimulate consumption.China’s steel industry also occupies an important position in the world,with its steel production accounting for more than half of the global total production.However,currently,China’s steel industry is still dominated by long processes,with high carbon emission intensity,and crude steel production capacity accounting for about 90%.With the dual pressures of increasing carbon emissions and overcapacity,China’s steel industry is facing unprecedented challenges.The main work of this article is as follows:1)After literature research,conduct research on the current status of carbon dioxide emissions in the domestic and foreign steel industry,three widely used carbon emission accounting models for the steel industry were selected:the Life Cycle Analysis（LCA）of the World View Steel Association,the International Energy Agency Report Calculation Method（IEA）,and the accounting methods proposed in China’s"Greenhouse Gas Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Steel Production Enterprises".The advantages and disadvantages of the three models were compared and analyzed,After improvement,a CO₂emission accounting method suitable for China’s steel industry was proposed:considering the entire lifecycle of the steel industry at the accounting boundary;In terms of emission factors,the emission factor data used in the"Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Accounting and Reporting of Steel Production Enterprises"calculation method is combined with the emission factors recommended by the IPCC.2)Based on the above accounting boundaries and emission factors,obtain data related to carbon emissions in China’s steel industry from 1991 to 2020（see the appendix for specific content）.Using exponential smoothing model,AR regression model,ARIMA（2,1,1）and ARIMA（2,1,2）models to model the above data,and comparing the various parameters of the obtained models to determine the advantages and disadvantages of each model.Finally,after comparing the accuracy of the prediction results and considering multiple factors such as BLC value,stationary R-squared value,and significance,the ARIMA（2,1,2）model was selected to roughly predict the carbon emissions of China’s steel industry in 2030 and 2060.3)Based on the predicted results,some technologies and policies with high international attention were selected for research and analysis,including carbon capture,utilization,and storage（CCUS）,hydrogen metallurgy technology,and carbon tax collection policies.