Comprehensive Evaluation And Path Characterization Of Belt And Road Sustainable Development Based On Planetary Pressures And Ecological Well-Being Performance

Research on the evaluation of sustainable development has been a hot spot of sustained attention and research in the international community in recent years.The research progress shows that the relevant evaluation theories and methods are advancing rapidly,but each has its own advantages and disadvantages,and it is difficult to rely on a single indicator or measure to solve all sustainable development problems,which leads the relevant research or policy making to be not fully scientific,comprehensive and operable.As research progresses,people gradually realize the ultimate goal and realization path of sustainable development,which is to maximize human well-being with minimal ecological consumption and maximize the relief of planetary pressure with the most efficient ecological well-being performance within the biocapacity.In order to evaluate the level of sustainable development,it is necessary to consider not only the ecological,economic and social dimensions,but also the “sustainability” and “development”aspects,so that a comprehensive and integrated scientific evaluation can be implemented.Based on this logic,this paper first constructed a comprehensive evaluation framework for sustainable development,and then selected the Belt and Road region to conduct an empirical study in order to verify the scientificity and rationality of this framework.The Belt and Road initiative is a new and ambitious initiative that may have a huge global impact,but the main part of the countries are located in arid,semi-arid or sub-humid regions with sensitive and fragile ecological environment,weak self-recovery capacity,and high sensitivity to response of global climate change and human activities.This has attracted global attention to the sustainable development of the region.At the same time,evaluating and monitoring the sustainable development level of the Belt and Road region and countries,analyzing and summarizing the path characteristics of the countries to achieve sustainable development,can help the smooth implementation of the initiative.Based on the logic of the ultimate goal of sustainable development,this research firstly constructed a comprehensive consumption-pressure-output-efficiency(CPOE)evaluation framework,using four comprehensive evaluation indicators to measure ecological consumption level(Ecological Footprint,EF),planetary pressure(Index of planetary pressure,P),human well-being outputs(Planetary pressures-adjusted Human Development Index,PHDI)and ecological well-being output efficiency(Adjusted Ecological Well-being Performance,AEWP).Secondly,this research analyzed the sustainable development level and its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the Belt and Road region and four groups of countries with different human development levels along the Belt and Road from 1990 to 2018,and compared the results with the world and regions respectively in order to grasp the regional sustainable development level and worldwide positioning as a whole,with a view to discovering general rules by gaining a deeper understanding of the sustainable development status of each country.Again,the well-being level,ecological welfare performance ranking and sustainable development status of the countries along the route are analyzed to further grasp the sustainable development progress of the countries along the route.Then,the leading factors for the improvement of well-being were analyzed by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI),with a view to exploring the different paths to achieve sustainable development in each country.Finally,this research proposed countermeasures and suggestions for achieving sustainable development in the Belt and Road.The results of the study showed that:1.At the regional level:(1)In terms of spatial dimension,the biocapacity(BC)per capita,EF per capita and PHDI of the Belt and Road region showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south,and the ecological surplus or deficit(ED/ES)per capita and AEWP showed a spatial distribution pattern of surplus in the north and deficit in the south,high in the south and low in the north,respectively,while the P showed a spatial evolution characteristic from high in the north and low in the south to high in the west and low in the north and south.(2)In terms of temporal changes,the regional EF per capita,P and PHDI showed an increasing trend during1990-2018,while the BC per capita showed a decreasing trend,the ED/ES per capita continued to be in deficit,and the AEWP showed a decreasing and then slowly increasing trend.(3)Compared with the world,the regional EF per capita was growing faster but lower overall,the BC per capita was lower overall but declining more slowly,the P was higher overall but growing at a rate similar to the world,the level of PHDI was lower overall but growing faster,and the AEWP was improving more slowly but higher than the world average overall.All of the above indicated that the region showed greater potential and room for improvement in sustainable development than the world.2.At the country level:(1)From an overall perspective,very high Human Development Index(HDI)countries had higher levels of ecological consumption,pressure and well-being,while medium and low HDI countries had higher levels of ecological well-being performance.(2)In terms of temporal changes,very high,high and medium HDI countries showed fluctuating increasing trends in ecological consumption and pressure levels,while low HDI countries showed almost no change;all countries had improved well-being levels;very high and high HDI countries showed almost no change in ecological well-being performance,while medium HDI and low HDI countries showed fluctuating decreasing and increasing trends,respectively.(3)Compared with regional and the world,medium and low HDI countries affected the world positioning of regional ecological consumption levels,very high HDI countries affected the world positioning of regional pressure levels,low HDI countries affected the world positioning of regional well-being levels,and very high and high HDI countries affected the world positioning of regional ecological well-being performance levels.3.For the improvement of well-being:(1)Compared with the HDI,the PHDI was smaller than the HDI in all countries,and the higher the HDI and P values the lower PHDI values.(2)For the PHDI,the PHDI had increased in most countries in 2018 compared to 1990.This indicated,on the one hand,that HDI without considering the planetary pressure was not a relatively objective measure of human development,and on the other hand,it also indicated that the overall level of human development was steadily improving,and countries with very high HDI tend to put more pressure on the earth.4.For the improvement of ecological well-being performance:(1)AEWP showed different developments depending on the development of each country,compared with1990,Ukraine had the most improved AEWP ranking in 2018,while Vietnam had the most decreased ranking;the largest increase in AEWP was in Yemen,while Bangladesh had the largest decrease.(2)PHDI and AEWP were not fully aligned,countries with high PHDI rankings did not necessarily have high AEWP rankings,and conversely countries with high AEWP do not necessarily have high PHDI.5.Path characteristics of countries to achieve sustainable development:(1)In terms of sustainable development status,none of the countries belonged to the sustainable development quadrant,and the overall sustainable development path is long and difficult.(2)In terms of sustainable development paths,most countries belonged to the ecological consumption-dependent paths,while the number of countries belonging to the well-being performance-promoting and balanced inefficient development paths is relatively small and comparable.Based on the above findings and with reference to the characteristics of each country’s sustainable development path,the following policy implications are proposed:(1)Ecological consumption-dependent medium and low PHDI countries urgently need to improve ecological well-being performance,while high PHDI countries urgently need to reduce ecological consumption.(2)Well-being performance-promoting medium and low PHDI countries urgently need to establish cooperation mechanisms to access ecological resources,while high PHDI countries should avoid further increase in resource consumption.(3)Balanced and inefficient development high,medium and low PHDI countries urgently need to strengthen environmental protection and management to effectively reduce ecological resource inputs.The comprehensive sustainable development evaluation framework proposed in this research can be extended to other regional and worldwide sustainable development evaluation studies.The conclusions of the Belt and Road study can provide targeted references for decision-making on sustainable development in countries along the Belt and Road,thus contributing to the successful implementation of the initiative.