| The greenhouse effect has become a growing concern in the past decades.Carbon dioxide（CO2）,as a major greenhouse gas,plays a vital role in global climate change.China has been the largest CO2 emitter in the world.The Chinese government has pledged to reduce its total carbon dioxide emissions and to reach carbon peak in 2030 and"net zero"CO2 emission by 2060,namely,the carbon neutrality.As a major CO2 emission sector,the power industry has been considered a primary sector for carbon emission reduction.Of which,coal-based thermal power has been the mainstay of China’s power supply and one of major sources of CO2 emissions.Along with continuously growing electricity demand and supply in China due to rapid economic development,energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in low-carbon transformation of the thermal power industry has become a top priority in the accomplishment of nation’s carbon emission reduction targets.Western China is featured by its abundant energy resources.About 70%of the power generation in Northwestern China comes from thermal power industry.As one of the major power transmission regions in China,Northwestern China outputs increasingly electricity to other parts of China under the"West-East Power Transmission"national program.This program effectively facilitates the transformation of energy resources into economic advantages in Western China,and help achieve optimal energy resource allocation,and promote the coordinated development of Western China.On the other hand,considering that thermal power generation is the main source of electricity in Northwestern China,the rapid growing power supply to Eastern and Central China via the“west to east power transmission”program will enhance significantly carbon emissions,bringing huge stress of carbon emission reduction to Northwestern China.Given large gaps in economic development between Eastern and Western China,this program might create"environmental inequity"to Northwestern China.This thesis assesses the carbon emissions from the power industry in Northwestern China through a rational of shared responsibility in virtual carbon emission transfer embodied in“west to east power transmission”under the framework of China’s provincial power transmission.The Kaya model and LMDI decomposition method were used to explore the main drivers of virtual carbon emission growth in Northwestern China’s power transmission.A BP neural network model was adopted in multiple scenario analysis to predict the carbon peak in 2030 for the power industry in Northwestern China.The results help to provide suggestions and scientific support to emission reduction strategies in the power industry in Northwestern China.The major outcomes from this study are summarized below:（1）Northwestern China accounts for 43%of the national inter-regional transmission of electricity outflow from Northwestern China Power Grid in 2020.We compared the power producer responsibility,consumer responsibility,and shared responsibility in power generation and provincial transmissions.The results reveal that the total carbon emissions from electricity in Northwestern China exhibited an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020 subject to the three responsibilities.However,the growth rate of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020 decreases by 27.6%.Compared with the power producer and consumer responsibilities,the shared responsibility principle yields more reasonable emission share between those power generation and output provinces and electricity consumption provinces.Under the shared responsibility,the overall carbon emissions from thermal power generation in Northwestern China in 2020 are reduced by 10%,and the carbon emissions in other parts of China are,to different degrees,also reduced.From this perspective,the shared responsibility exerts different constraints on carbon emissions in both power producers and consumers.Given large gaps in economic development between the eastern and western China,the“west to east power transmission”program might cause an"environmental inequity"（2）Northwestern China is identified as a net virtual carbon emission outflow region from power generation.Northern and Central China were the main receivers of virtual CO2 emissions from Northwestern China until 2020.From 2020 onward,Eastern China becomes the second largest receiver.The large difference in power generation efficiency between the power inflow and outflow provinces lead to a large difference in the virtual carbon emissions transferred from the Northwestern China.The main influencing factors that promote the growth of virtual carbon emissions in Northwestern China are the population,economy,power substitution,and power output share effect.The largest inhibitory effect on the growth of virtual carbon emissions is the electricity emission intensity.Increasing clean energy used in power industry could help the reduction of carbon emission intensity per unit of electricity generation and growing virtual carbon emissions embodied in“west-east power transmission”program.（3）Five scenarios were designed to predict the carbon peak of the power industry in Northwestern China subject to“west-east electricity transmission”program using the BP neural network model.The results show that the low carbon emission scenario characterized by the slow growing population,reduced power input share and thermal power share,and the enhancement of the growth rates of economic output,power consumption intensity,power output share,and power generation efficiency could otherwise achieve the carbon peak of the power industry in Northwestern China two years earlier with the carbon emissions peak at 637.756 million tons.（4）Our results suggest that Northwestern China should promote low-carbon emission in the power industry from the following aspects:1.accelerating the development of advanced thermal power technology,2.improving coal utilization,speeding up the application of electrical automation technology in thermal power plants,3.improving the efficiency of thermal power generation,and 4.implementing the plan for eliminating out-of-date power units.Northwestern China should take advantage to vigorously expand clean energy share in total power generation and output,so as to reduce the proportion of thermal power generation.Efforts should also made in decoupling economic growth with thermal power investment and tilting power development toward green energy generation. |
