Research On Emergency Response Of Metro Networked Operation Based On Dynamic Passenger Flow Distribution

As urban rail transit enters the era of network operation,operational disruption contingencies will affect the overall network passenger flow distribution,and various response strategies need to be improved to reduce accident losses.In order to overcome the shortcomings of the cumulative prospect theory(CPT)in static decision making and accurately portray the "finite rationality" of passenger travel,a dynamic impedance function is constructed,and the cumulative prospect value is used as a combination of utility values to establish a CPT-Logit dynamic passenger flow The CPT-Logit dynamic passenger flow distribution model is developed to explore the dual reference point calibration method under passenger flow induction,and to study the relationship between passenger flow distribution and response strategy.Firstly,we analyze the characteristics of passenger flow distribution in urban rail network operation,the profile of operation interruption contingencies and passenger travel choice behavior.Based on the factors affecting passenger path choice,the advantages,disadvantages and applicability of three theories of passenger travel choice behavior,namely utility theory,regret theory and prospect theory,are analyzed,showing that the combination of utility theory and prospect theory is more favorable to describe passenger travel choice behavior under urban rail transit emergencies.Second,the dynamic impedance function under unexpected events is constructed based on the travel cost under daily operation,and the effective path set is generated by the effective path improvement search algorithm with the number of interchanges.A logit model based on random utility theory is derived and the proportion of effective paths is calculated.Calibrate the reference point taking value,construct the value function and cumulative decision weight function,calculate the cumulative prospect value,and update the effective path proportion by substituting into the Logit model.Finally,the dynamic passenger flow distribution model based on CPT-Logit is established and the passenger flow distribution calculation method is given.Third,based on the passenger flow distribution under the operation interruption contingency,the characteristics of the contingency response problem and the response process are analyzed,and the line network passenger flow control,passenger flow induction and bus connection response strategies are proposed.The above three response strategies are given as the judgment method of interchange adjustment based on line allocation,the path selection model of passenger flow inducement based on double reference points,and the activation conditions and judgment method of bus feeder mode.Among them,the dual reference point calibration method of path cost and dynamic congestion degree in passenger flow inducement is discussed in detail,which provides the judgment basis for information release and inducement effect in different stages of passenger flow inducement.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of each parameter in the CPT-Logit model based on the passenger flow distribution under daily operation is carried out to verify the influence of the parameter selection on the passenger flow distribution results and to elaborate the rationality and stability of each parameter,using the interruption of the interval between Juridi and West Second Road of North Station of Chengdu Metro Line 7 as a case of unexpected events.At the same time,the changes of path proportion,cross-sectional passenger flow and overall line network passenger flow distribution under operation interruption contingencies are given,and the response strategies for the case of this paper are given:(1)Temporary minicrossings are opened at both ends of the foldback station for Southwest Jiaotong University Station and Yimaqiao Station.(2)Sensitivity analysis of preference coefficients in the route selection model based on dual reference points for passenger flow induction,substitution of adventurous passenger parameters,and calculation of the overall line network passenger flow distribution in two stages after passenger flow induction,the results show that the passenger flow induction effect is significant.(3)Initiate bus connection with a parallel bus connection mode combining all-stop and direct connection.The final comprehensive response measures for the clearing center,operation coordination center and emergency center are given.