Evaluation Of Ecological Restoration Effects Of Land Use In Hefei City Based On Ecological Security Pattern And The PLUS Model

The ecological restoration of land in China has risen to the level of a national strategic project under the requirement of building an ecological civilization.However,existing research has not adequately considered the inherent connection between land use changes under high-intensity human activity and the effectiveness of ecological restoration on national land.There is a lack of research on the impact of land use changes on the effectiveness of national land ecological restoration.This study takes the ecological restoration of the ecological strategic point in Hefei City,as determined by the 2020 Ecological Security Pattern,as a planning constraint and incorporates it into the PLUS model to simulate the 2030 land use pattern.It reconstructs the 2030 Ecological Security Pattern,identifies the ecological strategic nodes in 2030,and compares them with those in 2020.The research results can be used to further clarify potential problems in the restoration process and adjust the direction of national land ecological restoration work.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)Based on the PLUS model,the simulated land use situation in Hefei City in2030 has an overall accuracy of 93.5%,a Kappa coefficient of 0.85,and a Fo M coefficient of 0.45,indicating that the model is suitable for predicting future land use.The results show that under natural development and planning constraints,land expansion will mainly occur through the conversion of farmland to construction land and forest land.The expansion of construction land will mainly occur in the main urban area of Hefei City.(2)The ecological security pattern constructed in this study for Hefei City is consistent with the "one lake"(with Chaohu Lake as the core),"multiple pieces"(multiple ecological source areas),and "multiple corridors"(multiple river corridors)requirements in the draft of the Hefei City National Land Space Overall Plan(2021–2035),which conforms to the actual planning.Based on this,the comprehensive implementation of national land ecological restoration is simulated to evaluate the restoration effectiveness,which is operable.The research results show that the overall habitat quality and connectivity in Hefei City will improve to some extent in the future.(3)By simulating the land use situation in Hefei City under the scenario of national land ecological restoration,constructing the 2030 ecological security pattern,comparing it with the 2020 pattern,and identifying key ecological restoration strategic nodes,the expected effectiveness of national land ecological restoration in 2030 can be visually displayed.Potential problems in the future restoration process can be identified,and strategic suggestions for ecological restoration work can be put forward based on this.The research results fill a gap in the study of national land ecological restoration that has not fully considered future land use changes.They can be used to guide the formulation of national land space planning and ecological restoration planning and to timely adjust the work direction of ecological restoration based on problems to achieve the goal of scientifically and reasonably controlling ecological space and further improving the effectiveness of ecological restoration.This study proposes a framework for evaluating the expected effectiveness of national land ecological restoration based on land use prediction models and the construction of an ecological security pattern.It uses Hefei City as an example to conduct research.By clarifying the potential effectiveness of national land ecological restoration and identifying potential problems,it can provide a reference for the dynamic adjustment of ecological restoration work and the formulation of multi-level ecological security policies.It also provides a new perspective for the integration of land use simulation and ecological security pattern research.