Multi-site Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change And Habitat Quality In Jilin Province Based On SD-PLUS Coupling Model

The rapid development of social economy and the intensification of urbanization process have greatly affected the regional land use pattern and habitat quality pattern,which has led to the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment and serious damage to the regional development potential.In addition,future socio-economic and environmental changes are highly uncertain.Therefore,how to effectively evaluate the change trend of regional habitat quality and its response to land use change in the future is of great significance for promoting high-quality development and achieving harmonious coexistence between human and nature.This paper takes Jilin Province as the research object,based on six periods of 30m resolution LUCC data from 1995 to 2020,and on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of land use change and the trend of economic and social development in Jilin Province in the past 25 years,four different development scenarios are set up,and the SD-PLUS coupling model is established by combining the top-down land demand forecast with the bottom-up land use spatial simulation,Based on the multi-scene land use simulation map of Jilin Province in 2050,the habitat quality change trend of Jilin Province from 1995 to 2020 was analyzed by using the In VEST model habitat quality module,and the habitat quality status in 2050 was simulated and predicted.The results showed that:(1)The main characteristics of land use change in Jilin Province in the past 25years are as follows:the contradiction between the increasing demand for grain and the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland has led to the continuous conversion of farmland,forest land and grassland in the southeast of Jilin Province;The rapid expansion of construction land caused by the rapid development of social economy led to the conversion of cultivated land near the main urban area of Changchun City to urban construction land;The lack of attention and protection of grassland resources led to the degradation of large areas of grassland near Baicheng City to saline-alkali land;The shrinking area of wetland and other ecological land has led to the degradation of many wetland reserves on the northwest boundary of Jilin Province to unused land.From the perspective of development and utilization intensity,the comprehensive index of land use in Jilin Province was around 240 from 1995 to2020 and increased year by year.The development level was at a medium level,and there was still a large space for development.(2)The characteristics of land demand forecast under different development scenarios are obvious:under the inertia growth(S1)scenario,the cultivated land,construction land and unused area continue to increase,while the area of other land types decreases slightly,basically in line with the trend of land use change from 1995to 2020;In the context of rapid expansion(S2),the scale of urban construction land increased to 4234.26km~2,which is the maximum of four scenarios.At the same time,the area of various types of ecological land decreased sharply,reflecting the further intensification of the human-land conflict in Jilin Province under the extensive economic growth model;Under the ecological priority(S3)scenario,the area of forest land and wetland has increased significantly,and the area of rural residential areas has increased least.While practicing the concept of ecological civilization,the regional ecological balance has been basically maintained;Under the high quality development(S4)scenario,the expansion of urban construction land is smaller than the first three scenarios.The area of wetland and water area increases,while the area of forest land and grassland decreases slightly.Under the influence of high scientific and technological level and land use efficiency,the balance between economic development and ecological protection has been basically found.(3)The Kappa coefficient of the spatial simulation results of land use in Jilin Province in 2020 is 0.841,the overall accuracy is 0.907,and the Fom index is 0.151,which proves that the simulation accuracy is high.The results of the multi-scene simulation in 2050 show that there are obvious differences in the land use simulation map under different scenarios,and the expansion of urban construction land around S1and S2 scenarios is more obvious,and it is concentrated near the central urban area;Under the S3 scenario,the scale of various types of ecological land,especially grassland,has increased significantly;Under the S4 scenario,the urban boundary did not increase significantly,and the scale of water area wetlands expanded,basically meeting the setting requirements of different scenarios.(4)Under the four different scenarios in 2050,the average value of habitat quality in Jilin Province was ranked as S3(0.6622)>S4(0.6594)>S1(0.6343)>S2(0.6217),basically in line with the scenario setting.The areas with significant differences in habitat quality were the northwest and southeast of Jilin Province and the urban centers of various cities.The changes of different land types directly affected the spatial distribution of habitat quality.Under the S3 and S4 scenarios,The expansion scale of urban construction land in Jilin Province has been effectively controlled,the area of saline-alkali land has been further reduced,the area of ecological land such as forest land has gradually increased,and the overall quality of regional habitat has also been improved;However,under S1 and S2 scenarios,the habitat quality of Jilin Province gradually decreased with the disorderly expansion of urban construction land.Finally,based on the comparative analysis results of the simulation and prediction of habitat quality,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions related to land use and ecological protection in Jilin Province in the future.