Research On Tank Risk Assessment And Failure Simulation Based On RBI

With the flourishing development of science and technology,the demand for petroleum media is increasing,and atmospheric storage tanks have been widely used as a result.Due to the large volume and high investment cost of atmospheric storage tanks,as well as the complexity of the stored media,tank inspection work is difficult.The risk-based inspection(RBI)technology is currently widely used in China,with atmospheric storage tanks as the main analysis object.Based on the RBI technology,the risk value is calculated and the potential risks of the tanks are analyzed.By combining the failure probability and the consequences of failure,the risk level of different tanks is determined,and corresponding inspection and management plans are formulated.However,existing regulations use a uniform weight to evaluate the failure probability of tanks,which lacks specificity as each tank’s condition is unique.To address this issue,this paper introduces a multi-level grey comprehensive evaluation method that combines subjective and objective factors to improve the evaluation.For each tank’s operational status,the main influencing factors are determined,and a multi-level grey comprehensive evaluation model is constructed.The destruction coefficient is used as the research target,and a three-level evaluation index system is established to dynamically adjust the various factors affecting the destruction coefficient.This improved method is used to comprehensively assess atmospheric storage tanks,and the evaluation results are compared with the tanks’ magnetic flux leakage scan results.The results show that the multi-level grey comprehensive evaluation method can more accurately,scientifically,and dynamically evaluate the risk of atmospheric storage tanks.According to related research results,corrosion is the main factor causing tank leakage and failure,and the corrosion mechanism varies,making it difficult to accurately determine the depth and rate of corrosion on the tank bottom.To accurately grasp the distribution of tank bottom corrosion depth,this paper constructs a two-parameter Weibull distribution model based on extreme value theory,using the minimum value in ultrasonic thickness measurement data as the research data.The cumulative failure frequency is introduced to draw the probability distribution map of corrosion for the edge plate and middle plate of the atmospheric storage tank.The unknown parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution are estimated using the rank regression method.The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and goodness of fit test verify that the corrosion depth data of the atmospheric storage tank bottom conforms to the Weibull distribution.Due to the frequent occurrence of fire accidents caused by tank leakage,in order to obtain good prevention and prediction,this paper uses FDS fire simulation software to simulate and analyze the tank fire combustion process.In-depth analysis from the perspective of changes in different combustion parameters provides a reference for future fire rescue work.