Study On The Impact Of Digital Economy On China’s Provincial Carbon Emissions Embodied In Exports

As a new economic form,digital economy is steadily improving the digital,networked and intelligent level of economic society through digital industrialization and industrial digitization.With the continuous advancement of international digital technology revolution and the in-depth implementation of our digital economy development strategy,the digital economy of our country is developing rapidly,and has gradually become an important driving force of national economic growth.According to China Digital Economy Development Report(2022),China’s digital economy will achieve a scale of 45.5 trillion yuan in 2021,accounting for 39.8% of GDP,with a growth rate 3.4 percentage points higher than the nominal GDP growth rate,significantly increasing the level of economic contribution and enhancing the role of promoting the economy.At the same time,with the rapid development of international trade,urgent environmental problems become more prominent.In recent years,global warming has attracted much attention,and the "culprit" of global warming is carbon emission.In order to control carbon emissions,the international community has signed a number of international conventions and regulations,such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.With the deepening of economic globalization,China is deeply involved in international division of labor and production,which drives the substantial increase of GDP and export,and the carbon emissions embodied in exports are also increasing.Facing the dual pressures of international low-carbon emission reduction and domestic pollution control,China,as a responsible developing country,has set targets to strengthen its response to climate change.In 2021,China included "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" in its government work report for the first time.In this context,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of digital economy on the carbon emissions embodied in China’s exports.At present,the academic community has not formed a unified view on this issue.This paper attempts to analyze this issue to supplement the existing research and provide ideas for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.In this paper,a comprehensive evaluation index system of digital economy is constructed to calculate the comprehensive development level of digital economy in 30 provinces of China in 2012,2015 and 2017.The multi-regional input-output model is used to calculate the carbon emissions embodied in exports.In general,the development level of digital economy in China’s provinces is gradually improving,and the digital economy and the hidden carbon emissions of export trade in the eastern,northern and southern coastal regions are in the forefront.The development of digital economy in northwest,southwest and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively backward,and their export trade contains less carbon emissions.From the perspective of industries,non-metallic mineral manufacturing,basic metal and metal products manufacturing and electricity,gas and water supply industries have higher direct carbon emission coefficient,and their export embodied carbon emissions is also the largest.Through theoretical analysis,this paper argues that the impact of the development of digital economy on the implicit carbon emissions of export trade has two sides and stages.Among them,the upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the export embodied carbon emissions,and the expansion of export scale due to the progress of production technology leads to the increase of carbon emission embodied in exports.In the early stage of digital economy development,the scale effect is larger than the structure effect,so the overall export embodied carbon emissions show an increasing trend.When the development level of digital economy reaches a certain level,the structure effect is greater than the scale effect,and the embodied carbon emissions in exports will decrease.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper constructs a panel regression model to empirically test the relationship between the development level of digital economy and embodied carbon emissions from export trade.It is found that there is a positive correlation between digital economy and embodied carbon emissions from export trade during the sample period.Digital economy reduces export embodied carbon emissions through industrial structure upgrading.Digital economy promotes the expansion of production and export scale through partial technological progress so as to increase the carbon emission embodied in exports.And the scale effect is larger than the structure effect.Environmental regulations can inhibit the growth of carbon emissions embodied in exports.For most regions in the sample period,with the improvement of the development level of digital economy,the carbon emissions embodied in exports increased.In the long run,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the development of digital economy and the carbon emissions embodied in exports,and the embodied carbon emissions in China’s exports have not yet reached the inflection point.With the continuous development of science and technology,digital technologies such as big data,artificial intelligence and the Internet have emerged.Data has become a new factor of production and plays a multiplier role in improving production efficiency.Although the development of digital economy will lead to the increase of embodied carbon emissions in exports during the sample period,we should not deny the necessity of the development of digital economy,but continue to vigorously develop digital economy and accelerate the pace to reach the inflection point of the inverted "U" shaped curve.Combined with the research of this paper,the following policy suggestions are put forward in order to reduce the embodied carbon emissions in exports and accelerate the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.Develop a green digital economy,promote the development of the new energy industry,and promote the digitalization of traditional industries;Optimize and upgrade the industrial structure,and take concerted and simultaneous measures to modernize the industrial structure;Innovate green and low-carbon technologies,build a green and low-carbon technology system,in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and protect the ecological environment;Actively adjust the export structure,and reduce the export volume for the export departments with more embodied carbon emissions or higher direct carbon emission coefficient;Strengthen the improvement of environmental regulation,promote the means of environmental regulation innovation and strengthen the coordination of environmental regulation and economic policy.