Research On Financial Risk Of XJ Company Based On Modified Z Model

For a long time,coal has been in an absolutely dominant position in my country’s energy structure.Therefore,the solution to China’s energy problems must be dominated by coal.Previously,abundant coal resources also greatly promoted the development of my country’s economy.However,the living environment of my country’s coal enterprises has become increasingly difficult with the implementation of the national environmental protection policy.Problems such as unreasonable asset-liability structure,few financing channels,and strict bank financing review have greatly increased the financial risks of enterprises and seriously threatened the development of coal enterprises.In order to avoid this situation,enterprises must use scientific and effective financial risk early warning models to identify,evaluate and control their financial risks to ensure their healthy development.However,the existing financial risk early warning models are mostly established by Western scholars based on capitalist market data,and may not be fully applicable to the analysis of the financial status of Chinese enterprises.In addition,most of my country’s coal enterprises are state-owned holding enterprises,which are far-reachingly influenced by national policies,and their survival is closely integrated with national economic development.If we ignore my country’s national conditions and the status quo of the coal industry,and directly use the Western financial risk early warning model to analyze the financial risk status of each coal enterprise in China,it is likely that the real financial risk of the coal enterprise cannot be judged.Based on the above situation,this paper firstly substitutes the coal enterprise data into the traditional Z model,and finds that coal enterprises have the characteristics of high asset-liability ratio and low working capital.This feature leads to the serious low X1 index of coal enterprises in the traditional Z model,which affects the general low Z value of the industry.Although the low operating capacity index indicates that coal enterprises have certain financial risks,under the national conditions of our country,such financial risks have too great influence on the judgment results of the financial status of coal enterprises,which is unreasonable.In addition,the traditional Z model was proposed earlier,and the market changes rapidly.Some indicators in the model may not be representative,and the critical value may also be unreasonable.Therefore,based on the financial data of all listed coal enterprises in my country(2016-2020),this paper selects 19 indicators as the basis,and selects 5 representative indicators and establishes the discriminant function through step-by-step discriminant analysis,and finally obtains A modified Z model suitable for financial early warning analysis of my country’s coal industry.Then take XJ company as the case object,use the revised model to evaluate the overall financial situation of XJ company,and then analyze the specific financial situation of XJ company with various indicators,and put forward relevant questions.Finally,we propose countermeasures to improve the problem.