Research On Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Of Urban Distribution Network Projects Under Carbon Neutrality

Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutral target,China’s renewable energy generation is in the midst of a rapid growth trend.In 2022,China’s new renewable energy generation capacity will be 152 GW,accounting for 31.3%of the country’s total power generation capacity.The Notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of New Energy in the New Era points out that we should continuously innovate the development and utilization mode of new energy and accelerate the construction of a new power system that adapts to the gradual increase in the proportion of new energy,and strive to reach 50%coverage of rooftop photovoltaic in new buildings of public institutions in China by 2025.With the rapid development of renewable energy generation,energy prosumers on the demand side participate in the demand side response through interruptible load and shiftable load.They participate in grid load interaction by configuring distributed power sources,electric vehicles,and user side energy storage devices.For the purpose of reducing electricity costs,obtaining subsidies or compensating benefits,the number of users participating in grid load interaction through generalized load resources is gradually increasing.Reasonably guiding the interactive behavior of generalized load resources helps to smooth out the fluctuations of the load curve,alleviate the tension during peak electricity consumption,reduce the risks brought by the integration of a large amount of uncertain renewable energy,and improve the reliability of power supply.Against the backdrop of the rapid development of renewable energy,the continuous popularization of generalized load interaction,and the diversified transformation of urban distribution network functions,this article conducts the following research.Firstly,the harmonious relationship between urban electric power development and social and economic development is explored.The index system of electric power development and social and economic growth is constructed and analyzed based on the status quo of typical cities.Based on econometric model,the causal relationship and co-integration relationship between urban power and economic variables are discussed.Then,on the basis of exploring the development path of low carbonization of urban distribution network,a social responsibility system is constructed from the dimensions of meeting new load demand,promoting electric energy substitution,improving energy structure,ensuring reliable operation of electric power,providing quality customer service and carrying out public welfare and charity work.A comprehensive benefit assessment model for urban distribution networks under the carbon neutrality target is constructed and an empirical analysis is developed considering multiple scenarios.The results show that there is a one-way Granger causality relationship and long-term co-integration relationship between urban electric power development and social and economic development.Under the goal of carbon neutrality,users can participate in grid load interaction through generalized load resources,reduce their own power consumption costs or gain benefits,and play the role of peak shaving and valley filling.The electricity demand forecasting model constructed in this paper is feasible in the evaluation of the implementation effect of the electricity tariff mechanism and the forecasting of electricity power level under broad load interaction.The comprehensive benefit evaluation model of urban distribution network constructed in this article can obtain quantitative benefits in monetary units,and the evaluation results can promote the sustainable development of multiple entities.The research in this article can be used to guide the government in formulating policies related to the development of renewable energy and electricity pricing mechanisms,evaluate the effectiveness of policy implementation,promote the orderly progress of electricity market construction,and ensure energy security.It can help the power grid improve its load forecasting and resource allocation levels,accurately plan,invest,and operate power grid assets based on comprehensive consideration of economic and social impacts,improve user service levels,and effectively fulfill social responsibilities.It can help users improve the rationality of configuring generalized load resources and reduce energy costs.