Research On The Environmental Effects Of Global Manufacturing Center Shift

Industrial transfer is crucial for optimizing industrial structure,but it can also lead to environmental degradation.As manufacturing has shifted in recent years,so have carbon emissions and other air pollutants.China,as the world’s largest developing country,has actively participated in international industrial transfer and now occupies the center of gravity of global manufacturing.However,while this has provided economic benefits,it has also increased the risk of environmental pollution.It is therefore essential to understand the impact of participation in international industrial transfers on the atmospheric ecological environment.This understanding can help developing countries like China achieve industrial structure optimization and high-quality development while minimizing the risk of environmental pollution.The main research content is as follows:Firstly,based on the multi-regional input-output tables from 1990 to 2016 in the Eora database（updated to 2016）,the value-added amount of manufacturing and the trade-related transfer of CO₂,CH₄,N₂O,and SO₂ of each country were calculated.The global economic center of manufacturing was observed from a spatial perspective.Secondly,from a network perspective,the global value-added transfer network of manufacturing and the typical greenhouse gas transfer network were constructed respectively,and their overall,local,and individual structural characteristics were analyzed.The evolution characteristics of the global manufacturing network center were revealed by a k-core correction gravity model.Thirdly,QAP correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to examine the overall correlation between value-added transfer and typical greenhouse gas transfer networks.Fourthly,a panel regression model was established to further study the differentiated impact of individual structural characteristics of countries in the value-added transfer network on air pollutant emissions,including transfer breadth,transfer intensity,and center of gravity centrality.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,over the past 30 years,the economic center of global manufacturing has shifted from countries like Germany,Japan,and the United States to China.The shift occurred in three stages:the initial transfer to China（1990-2000）,rapid transfer（2000-2010）,and consolidation（2010-2016）.During this period,Germany remained the demand center of the network,while the supply center gradually shifted from Germany,the United States,and other countries to China by 2016.China has significantly increased its status in the value-added transfer network and successfully advanced to the core supply shell of the network.Secondly,there is an unbalanced development in the global transfer network of atmospheric pollutants CO₂,CH₄,N₂O,and SO₂,with China and a few other countries producing and emitting more CO₂ and SO₂.The transfer of CO₂ and SO₂ shows an especially prominent non-equilibrium phenomenon.Thirdly,there is a significant positive correlation between value-added transfer networks and the four types of atmospheric pollutant transfers from 1990 to 2016,although the degree of correlation varies.Lastly,panel regression results from 1997 to 2016 indicate that an increase in the transfer breadth of both demand and supply in the value-added transfer network has a negative impact on the atmospheric environment.However,an increase in the demand intensity of a country’s manufacturing industry can improve the atmospheric environment,while an increase in gravity centrality has an adverse effect on it.