| Under the background of "double carbon",the chemical industry,as a high energy consumption and high emission industry,how to choose energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to achieve low-carbon emission reduction has become an important research topic in this field.However,the current research on emission reduction in the chemical industry in China is mainly focused on the national level,and the research focuses mainly on coal or petrochemical industries with higher carbon emissions.The research on emission reduction in the field of natural gas chemical industry at the regional level still needs to be expanded.As an important base for natural gas chemical industry in China,Chongqing is an important source of carbon emissions.Under the "dual carbon" goal,it is also necessary to choose energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to achieve low-carbon emissions reduction.Therefore,this study will focus on the issue of emission reduction in Chongqing’s natural gas chemical industry.Taking typical natural gas chemical industries and their key enterprises in Chongqing as the research object,it will conduct in-depth research on how to choose energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to achieve low-carbon emission reduction in typical natural gas chemical industries in the region.Based on this,it will further explore the selection of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies for key enterprises in Chongqing’s natural gas chemical industry.The research content of this article mainly includes: firstly,analyzing the current situation of synthetic ammonia and methanol in two typical natural gas chemical industries in Chongqing,and then exploring the current situation of key enterprises.The second is to analyze the process flow and energy consumption of natural gas to synthetic ammonia and methanol,and preliminarily select advanced and applicable energy-saving and emission reduction technologies based on two types: consumption reduction,efficiency improvement,energy-saving and emission reduction technologies,and clean energy substitution technologies.The third is to use the LEAP(Low Emissions Analysis Platform)model to construct a CQC-LEAP model for energy conservation and emission reduction technology selection in Chongqing’s typical natural gas chemical industry and its key enterprises based on process technology processes,setting scenarios and parameters from both industry and enterprise levels.The fourth is the simulation and result analysis of typical natural gas chemical industry models,analyzing the selection of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies in Chongqing’s typical natural chemical industry from three categories of indicators:energy consumption,carbon emissions,and emission reduction costs.The fifth is the simulation and result analysis of key natural gas chemical enterprise models.By constructing marginal emission reduction cost curves for key energy-saving and emission reduction technologies of two key enterprises,we further explore how Chongqing’s key natural gas chemical enterprises can choose specific consumption reduction,efficiency improvement,energy-saving and emission reduction technologies in the short term.The research results indicate that:(1)For the two typical natural gas chemical industries in Chongqing,firstly,the unit emission reduction costs of the three emission reduction scenarios are: clean energy substitution scenario>planning scenario>enhanced scenario,with the highest unit emission reduction cost in the clean energy substitution scenario.This indicates that the planning scenario and enhanced scenario of applying consumption reduction,efficiency improvement,energy-saving and emission reduction technology have more economic benefits in emission reduction,Therefore,in the short term,two typical industries should choose energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to achieve emission reduction.Secondly,from the perspective of energy consumption reduction indicators,in both the planned and strengthened scenarios,the most significant decrease in energy consumption in the Chongqing synthetic ammonia industry is the consumption of natural gas in the raw gas preparation process,while the most significant decrease in energy consumption in the Chongqing methanol industry is the consumption of natural gas in the synthesis gas preparation and methanol synthesis processes,Therefore,two typical industries should prioritize selecting key consumption reduction,efficiency improvement,energy conservation,and emission reduction technologies to reduce natural gas consumption in these processes.Once again,for unit energy consumption,only the enhanced scenario can meet the requirement of exceeding 30% of the 2025 benchmark energy efficiency ratio,and the unit emission reduction cost under the enhanced scenario is lower than the planned scenario.Therefore,in the short term,two typical industries should choose to gradually promote consumption reduction,efficiency improvement,energy conservation,and emission reduction technologies starting from 2020 according to the promotion ratio of the enhanced scenario,with an average promotion rate of 73.75% and 73.50% in 2035,respectively,It can achieve cumulative emission reductions of 3.378 million tons and 741300 tons of carbon dioxide.Finally,the rate of decrease in carbon emissions per unit product for the three emission reduction scenarios is: clean energy substitution scenario>strengthened scenario>planned scenario.The clean energy substitution scenario has the fastest decrease in carbon emissions when the technology promotion rate is much lower than the other two scenarios,and with the further promotion of clean substitution technology in the future,the emission reduction advantages will become more obvious.Therefore,in the medium to long term,with the trend of gradually rising carbon prices in the future,two typical industries should deploy clean energy alternative technologies from the perspective of long-term benefits in order to meet the development requirements of the "dual carbon" strategic goal.Starting from 2025 and 2030,the two industries gradually promoted renewable energy ammonia production technology and carbon dioxide hydrogenation to methanol technology.With promotion rates reaching 20% and 5%respectively in 2035,carbon emissions per unit product decreased by 20.00% and 11.92%,respectively.(2)For two key natural gas chemical enterprises in Chongqing,based on the marginal emission reduction cost curve of their key energy-saving and emission reduction technologies,it was found that the five key energy-saving and emission reduction technologies of natural gas to synthetic ammonia key enterprises have good emission reduction benefits with an expected carbon price of 139 yuan/t CO2 by 2030.The enterprise can choose to promote them in order of unit emission reduction cost from small to large.Compared to the current carbon price forecast,the four key energy-saving and emission reduction technologies of key natural gas to methanol enterprises have a higher unit emission reduction cost.However,considering that the carbon price will gradually rise in the future,it is still necessary to plan and deploy key energy-saving and emission reduction technologies in advance while seeking appropriate government subsidies,and promote them in order of unit emission reduction cost from small to large. |