Research On Evaluation And Dynamic Warning Of County Area Tourism Ecological Security In Fenhe River Basin

With the development of ecological protection in the Yellow River with high quality and carbon was at peak,carbon neutral,"double carbon" target countries such as major strategic comprehensive continues to advance,together with national resources economy transformation of Shanxi Province is the implementation of the comprehensive reform pilot area construction,The Fenhe River Basin as the regional economy,ecology,resources and culture such as core,it is of great practical significance and necessity to rationally coordinate and allocate the growth of economic benefit of river basin tourism with the protection of ecological environment and scientifically safeguard and enhance the ecological security system of river basin tourism.This paper selects 35 counties in the Fenhe River Basin as the basic unit of research,constructs the evaluation index system of tourism ecological security based on the PSR-EES framework model,and uses Max-DEA software to comprehensively measure and evaluate the tourism ecological security of each county in the Fenhe River Basin from 2010 to 2020.The spatial analysis method of GIS was used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,spatial correlation and leading factors of tourism ecological security in counties of the Fenhe River Basin from the perspective of county scale.The system dynamics model is used to carry out dynamic early warning analysis of tourism ecological security in the Fenhe River Basin from 2021 to 2027,and on this basis,targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the overall improvement of tourism ecological security in the Fenhe River Basin,in order to provide reference for the construction of national ecological civilization and the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In terms of time series evolution,the overall tourism ecological security level of Fenhe River Basin showed a benign trend of rising fluctuations.Overall,the comprehensive index of tourism ecological security in the basin shows a "W" shaped evolution trend of "down-up-down-up-up",mostly concentrated in the "sensitive level",and slowly tends to the "general safety level".The subsystem of tourism ecological stress has a significant change,and the two subsystems of state and response have a stable development trend,and the overall is at a low safety level.(2)In terms of spatial pattern,the spatial differentiation characteristics of county tourism ecological security level in Fenhe River Basin were significant,showing two spatial evolution patterns in general.The first is the "core-edge" decreasing pattern with Taiyuan urban area as the core and Xiaoyi City,Lingshi County and Linfen urban area as the secondary core;Second,the overall change pattern of Fenhe River is gradually decreasing from north to south.(3)In terms of spatial correlation,there is a significant positive spatial correlation between county tourism ecological security in the Fenhe River Basin.The global spatial correlation evolved from weak correlation to strong correlation,and the spatial agglomeration was increasingly enhanced.The global spatial pattern relationship of healthy stability was not formed,and the local spatial autocorrelation was mainly concentrated in the high-high agglomeration area(H-H)and low-low agglomeration area(L-L).(4)The dominant factors affecting county tourism ecological security in Fenhe River Basin are economic development intensity,tourism resource endowment attraction degree and ecological environmental protection strength.(5)Temporal evolution characteristics of tourism ecological security early warning measures in counties of Fenhe River Basin:(1)The differentiation of tourism ecological security early warning levels in different counties is serious.(2)The spatial differentiation of tourism ecological security warning was significant,showing a spatial pattern of "large concentration and small dispersion" on the whole.The high-value warning area was distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the river basin and the middle and eastern regions,showing a scattered and scattered trend,evolving from heavy alarm at the beginning of the study period to light alarm and no alarm at the end of the simulation period,and the low-value areas such as heavy alarm and medium alarm mostly distributed in centralized contiguous patches.(3)The spatial dynamic evolution range of the standard deviation ellipse of tourism ecological security alert covers the main area of the economic development of the river basin in general,showing an obvious moving trend of "northeastsouthwest",and continues to expand southward along the main axis.Based on the above conclusions,the relevant countermeasures to improve the level of tourism ecological security in the counties of Fenhe River Basin are put forward: actively alleviate the pressure of tourism ecology in the basin,Reasonably control the tourism ecology condition,To improve the ecological response of tourism in the river basin,To enhance the resilience of tourism ecosystem in the river basin,Promote the establishment of river basin tourism early warning management system.