Analysis And Risk Assessment Of Railway External Environment Hidden Danger Based On Line Section

The number and types of hidden dangers in the external environment of railways are many,showing a discrete distribution state.Minimizing the casualties and economic losses caused by railway accidents caused by external environmental factors and ensuring the safety of railway transportation are the main tasks of the current stage of the rectification of railway external environmental hazards.How to effectively divide and analyze the railway external environment line sections and determine the section risk level is an important issue to improve the efficiency of external environment remediation.From the perspective of railway line sections,the paper analyzes the external environment risk profile,divides the line sections,determines the risk analysis method,identifies the risk level of the line section,and prevents the occurrence of risk events based on the hidden danger data and risk event data that have been checked out.The main contents are as follows:(1)From a macro perspective,use mathematical statistics to analyze hidden dangers and risk events in the external environment.It is concluded that hard floating objects,light floating objects and tree planting are the main types of external environmental hidden dangers.From the mileage location of the hidden danger,the hidden danger distribution is in a locally concentrated discrete state;from the perspective of the distance from the hidden danger to the line,the hidden danger distribution presents a step-by-step decrease,the range of 0～50m is the most concentrated,followed by50m～100m range,the number of hidden dangers beyond 100 m is the least.From the perspective of people,things and environment,the paper analyzes the external environmental risk events of railway,and identifies 13 risk factors.Using the hidden danger type,the problem type expression in the risk event data is divided,and 18 risk types are obtained.By analyzing the risk event data,it was found that the main risk event types of illegal passage were 76%;the frequency analysis of 13 risk factors was carried out,and it was determined that illegal passage,foreign body intrusion and tree planting were the main risk factors,accounting for more than 90%.(2)Risk analysis of line sections based on the relationship between adjacent hidden dangers.By analyzing the characteristics of hidden dangers,determining the influence scope of hidden dangers and risk assessment indicators of line sections,line sections are divided.The grey statistical decision-making analysis is carried out on the risk evaluation index of the line section,the grey category of the index is determined,and the grey relative closeness value is calculated by the grey relational TOPSIS method,and the relative risk value of the line section is obtained.The value is divided into 4grades of line risk sections: high risk,medium risk,general risk,and low risk.(3)Risk Analysis of Line Sections Based on Sliding Window Method.Statistical risk event result data,equivalent hidden danger risk value,divide line sections by sliding window method,and use the method of combining equivalent hidden danger risk value and cumulative frequency to divide risk sections.Accumulate the equivalent hidden danger risk value,fit the curve,determine the critical percentage of the external environmental risk section of the railway at 87%～93%,analyze the influence of the window length and step size on the division of the risk section,and determine that the window length is 1km,and the step size is The sliding window method of 1km is the optimal option,and 27 risk sections are obtained,the total mileage accounts for 7.04%,which is 36 km,and the hidden danger accounts for 46.91%,which is 440,and the total equivalent hidden danger risk value is 4430.65.