Mathematical Modelling Approach For Quantifying CO₂ Emissions From The Last Mile Distribution In The Logistics System Of The Mongolian People’s Republic

During the COVID-19 pandemic,travel restrictions and consumer social anxiety have led to an increase in online shopping.More and more people are using e-commerce more frequently,leading to a surge in e-commerce.The growth of e-commerce has brought about an increase in logistics activities,and the environmental pollution caused by the last mile distribution problem in logistics activities is particularly serious.Due to the increasing volume of express delivery,the number of express delivery vehicles is also gradually increasing.The fuel consumption of express delivery vehicles during the process of delivering goods is also increasing,and the exhaust emissions are also increasing day by day.Therefore,the increasing logistics activities are also one of the main causes of environmental pollution.Mongolia’s e-commerce ecosystem has improved significantly over the past few years.With the capital city of Ulaanbaatar as the center,Mongolia has relatively good e-commerce infrastructure.Data from the Ministry of Electronics Development and Communications’"Communication Technology Use Survey"shows that with the introduction of high-speed Internet throughout Mongolia,21 provinces,335 townships and settlements in Mongolia can use the Internet,and 61%of the population uses the Internet.In addition,the number of mobile phone users is increasing year by year,and by 2021,84.7%of the total population use smartphones.According to a report by the Mongolian E-Commerce Development Center,an estimated 2 million Mongolians regularly shop online through domestic online shopping platforms and foreign e-commerce platforms such as Amazon or Alibaba.At the same time,Facebook and Instagram have become one of the most popular e-commerce platforms in the region,with daily transaction volume exceeding 60,000-70,000.On the other hand,the development speed of Mongolia’s express delivery industry does not match the development speed of e-commerce,which has seriously hindered the development of e-commerce.China is currently the world’s largest online shopping market,and the development of e-commerce and its distribution services in China is very mature.Therefore,it is very important for Mongolia to learn from the experience of neighboring country and develop its distribution services.More than half of Mongolia’s population lives in the capital Ulaanbaatar.The city’s road traffic volume is heavy,nearly 660,000 vehicles overwhelm Ulaanbaatar’s roads.In addition,the parking space is far from meeting the demand,and the phenomenon of random parking is common,which intensifies the urban traffic congestion and increases the emission of automobile exhaust.Relevant data show that automobile exhaust causes about 15%of the city’s air pollution,and carbon dioxide in automobile exhaust accounts for 20%of the total exhaust.The World Bank document"Analysis of Air Quality in Ulaanbaatar"shows that air pollution has a major impact on the health of Ulaanbaatar residents,leading to rates of lung and heart disease.Therefore,the main purpose of this paper is to study the last mile distribution mode selection problem considering the environmental impact of distribution services,and to propose a method to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from logistics vehicles,which account for a high proportion of air pollution in Mongolia.As a result,CO₂ emissions can be reduced to a certain extent,which helps reduce the negative impact of air pollution on people’s health.The main work of the paper is as follows:This paper firstly studies the development status and existing problems of Mongolia’s"last mile"delivery.Secondly,it analyzes the most mature last mile distribution modes in China and the three current distribution modes in Mongolia.Thirdly,it pointed out the reference significance of China’s last mile distribution solution to Mongolia.On the basis of the above research,the CO₂ emission model under various distribution modes is established.Then,through the analysis of large-scale and small-scale cases,the three distribution modes are compared from the perspectives of CO₂ emissions of express companies,customers’CO2 emissions and total CO2 emissions.It provides a theoretical basis for the development of the"last mile"distribution mode of Mongolia’s express industry in the future.45 figures,7 tables,and 62 references.