Study On Analysis And Emergency Resource Decision Model Of Flood Induced Oil Pipeline Leakage Accident

In recent years,due to the influence of weather factors,flood disasters occur frequently,there are many oil pipelines,the lines are long,and cross rivers and other environmentally sensitive areas.The surrounding environment is complex and the impact range is wide.The pipeline accident disaster caused by flood disaster is a kind of high impact and low probability event.Once the pipeline breaks and leaks,the consequences will be more serious than traditional accidents,Its influence range can spread thousands of kilometers in different regions.In this case,the core work of emergency rescue is to formulate an efficient and reasonable emergency resource decision-making scheme,scientifically and effectively allocate the limited emergency resources and transport them to the place of accident quickly and fairly.Firstly,Starting from the classification and characteristics of flood disaster,through the statistical analysis of previous accident data,the disaster causing factors of flood induced oil pipeline are counted,the main causes,failure modes and accident consequences of flood induced oil pipeline rupture are summarized and analyzed,and the chain reaction mechanism of flood induced oil pipeline accident is studied.Based on this,an improved mads-mosar model is proposed to construct the bow model of flood induced oil pipeline rupture,and the risk analysis of pipeline rupture failure is studied by using fuzzy probability.Then,According to the classification and demand characteristics of emergency resources,the classification database of emergency resources for flood induced oil pipeline leakage accident is established,the evaluation index system of emergency resource demand priority is constructed from three aspects of importance,timeliness and availability,and the set-valued iterative hesitation fuzzy language method is proposed to evaluate the demand level.The population density is introduced into the demand prediction of emergency materials,the demand prediction model of flood emergency materials is constructed considering the demand level,and the probability of flood induced oil pipeline leakage accident is introduced according to the amount of oil leakage and oil pollution diffusion function,so as to construct the prediction function of emergency resource demand of oil leakage under flood.Thirdly,based on the above research,the decision-making of emergency resources for flood induced oil pipeline leakage accident is studied more deeply.Firstly,under the condition of meeting the constraints,considering the severity of the event,the fairness of allocation and the urgency of rescue time,taking the shortest total distribution time and the smallest total cost of emergency resources as the emergency objectives,a multi-objective optimized emergency resource allocation decision model is constructed,which will enable all demand points to effectively allocate and dispatch resources,so as to ensure the timeliness and economy of the emergency resource allocation decision-making scheme for flood induced oil pipeline leakage accident.It improves the scientificity of emergency resource demand and solves the problem that decision makers quickly determine the priority of resource allocation.Finally,Taking the Beijing Tianjin Hebei oil pipeline under the flood disaster in Beijing as an example,the multi-objective optimized emergency resource decision-making model is verified and studied,and finally the optimal emergency resource decision-making scheme from each supply point to each demand point is obtained,which proves the effectiveness and rationality of the model,lays a good foundation for rapid rescue,and optimizes the emergency management of oil pipeline accidents induced by flood in Beijing,Improving the emergency response capacity of hazardous chemical accidents caused by natural disasters in the capital is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the capital.