| The global climate problem has become a challenge that the international community needs to focus on.A large number of studies show that excessive emissions of carbon dioxide gas is one of the main causes of global warming in recent years.Compared with the operation of the national economy,the transportation industry is fundamental,pioneering and supportive.It develops with the development of national and regional economy,making it the second largest sector in energy consumption and carbon emissions.At the same time,the rapid development of the global transportation industry has exacted a serious cost on the earth and human beings.Among them,the greenhouse effect is more and more serious with the increase of carbon emissions,followed by that the inevitable ecological environment is gradually bad.Therefore,green and low-carbon development mode has gradually become a common consensus for the future development of human society,and countries all over the world are actively exploring the road of low-carbon transportation development.In this context,carbon emissions from transportation industry have been increasingly concerned and studied deeply by the academic community.Due to the obvious differences of political and economic environments in the world,carbon emissions from the global transportation industry also show the characteristics of uneven spatial distribution.On the basis of this objective fact,this paper analyzes the dynamic distribution pattern,distribution pattern and correlation pattern of carbon emissions in transportation industry from the global scale,so as to reveal the spatial transmutation law contained in it,and explore its influencing mechanism and main driving factors.Based on the global or regional transport carbon emissions in the proportion of the total in the world and its temporal evolution analysis,specific that countries or regions should bear the responsibility.This is advantageous to built the low-carbon transportation system completely,achieve the goal of energy conservation and emissions reduction,implement ecological civilization concept.Based on the panel data of the International Energy Agency(IEA)on transport carbon emissions from 1971 to 2018,this study selected the transport carbon emission data of 140 countries or regions around the world as research samples.This sample covers a number of countries with different political and economic environments,different development stages and different geographical locations in different continents,ensuring the scientific nature,typicality and comprehensiveness of the research.Gini coefficient,standard deviation ellipse,Moran index and quantile regression were used to analyze the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of global transportation carbon emissions.Exploring the influencing factors in the evolution process.The findings:(1)From the perspective of distribution pattern,global transport carbon emissions wave rise,show that the typical polarization characteristics on the space.But over time,the polarization characteristics become weaker,embodied in "a multipolar" to "double strong multipolar" trend.The distribution of growth pole increased and space to the northwest-southeast migration trend is obvious.During the study period,the center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse moved eastward obviously,the direction Angle changed slightly,and the ellipse circumference and area showed a trend of dynamic expansion.By integrating the multiple analysis results of the standard deviation ellipse,a conclusion can be drawn that the spatial pattern of global transportation carbon emissions presents a "northwest to southeast" trend(based on the location of the world map in the paper),and the east-west gap is more obvious than the south-north gap.(2)From the perspective of distribution pattern,the Gini coefficient of carbon emissions from the global transportation industry shows a significant downward trend,and its spatial distribution is more balanced.According to the law of its dynamic change,it can be divided into four stages.The first stage is from 1971 to 1989.During this stage,the Gini coefficient value of carbon emissions from the global transportation industry showed a rapid decline trend from 0.8963 in 1971 to 0.8646 in 1989.The spatial distribution is characterized by rapid dispersion.The second stage was from 1990 to 2000,during which the Gini coefficient decreased slowly and fluctuated from 0.8429 in 1990 to 0.8369 in2000.The overall spatial distribution was slow decentralization.The third stage was from2001 to 2009.The value of gini coefficient decreased from 0.8341 in 2001 to 0.8118 in2009.The spatial distribution of gini coefficient showed the characteristics of accelerated dispersion again.During the fourth stage from 2010 to 2018,the gini coefficient showed the trend of slow fluctuation again.Its value decreased from 0.8122 in 2010 to 0.8071 in2018.And its spatial distribution returned to the characteristics of slow dispersion.(3)From the perspective of correlation pattern,the global Moran’s I of global transportation carbon emission is greater than zero from 1971 to 2018,and the normal statistic Z value is significant at the level of α=0.05(test critical value is 1.96)(i.e.0.05),indicating a significant agglomeration and distribution of carbon emissions from transport in all countries around the world,that is countries with high carbon emissions from transport also have high carbon emissions from transport around them,and vice versa.From 1971 to 1981 and from 1991 to 2009,the global Moran’s I values showed an upward trend,indicating that the spatial correlation of global transportation carbon emissions tended to be strengthened,and countries with similar carbon emissions tended to be more concentrated in space.From 1981 to 1991 and from 2009 to 2018,the global Moran’s I values showed a downward trend,indicating that the spatial correlation of global transport carbon emissions tended to weaken,and countries with similar carbon emissions tended to be more decentralized in space.Compared with the basically unchanged trend of Moran’s I index,the number of locally significant countries with carbon emissions from global transportation industry showed a distinct upward trend from 1971 to 2008,and the significant types also gradually increased,and the spatial dependence of local regions became stronger and stronger.Affected by the 2008 financial crisis,from 2009 to 2018,The number of locally significant countries began to decline,but between 1971 and 2018,overall,the number of locally significant countries with carbon emissions from the global transport sector increased.(4)From the perspective of influencing factors,the global carbon emission pattern of transport industry is driven by multiple factors,and different factors have different impacts on countries or regions in different carbon emission levels of transport industry.Population size plays a significant role in promoting carbon emissions from transportation industry in all sample countries or regions involved in this study,but the difference is not obvious.The influence of affluence on carbon emissions from transport industry basically conforms to the inverted u-shaped curve,and the positive effect of countries or regions with high carbon emissions is weaker than that of countries or regions with low carbon emissions.Technological progress has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions from the transport industry,and countries or regions with high carbon emissions are more flexible to technological progress.The participation of global value chain has a significant effect on promoting countries or regions with high carbon emissions,while the division of labor in global value chain significantly inhibits countries or regions with low carbon emissions and high carbon emissions.According to the research results in this paper,in view of the influence of population and per capita income level,suggests to give full play to the government function,perfect the system of the rule of law,and strengthen propaganda and education and the punishment.According to the analysis of the technical level,this paper indicates that strengthening the technical innovation is beneficial to get twice the result with half the effort to achieve carbon reduction of the transportation industry.Known from the analysis of the global value chain,Strengthening international cooperation and restriction is an effective way to achieve carbon emission reduction in transportation industry. |
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