Research On The Impact Mechanism Of The Development Of Prefabricated Buildings On Carbon Emission Of Construction Industry Based On Multi-agent

At present,China’s construction industry is in an important stage from high-speed development to high-quality development,in order to improve the current high pollution and energy consumption problems brought by the traditional construction methods in the building industry,China is vigorously promoting the energy-saving,environment-friendly,high-quality and high-efficiency assembled buildings,and actively exploring the carbon emission reduction breakthroughs brought by the assembled construction methods.studies have focused on the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of assembled buildings compared to traditional buildings,while studying the carbon emission reduction influencing factors and their effects in the construction industry from the meso level,with less research on the influence relationships and paths existing between the two.This paper will reveal the key factors,paths of action and effects of the development characteristics and behaviors of the main body of assembled buildings on carbon emissions in the construction industry based on the perspective of micro subjects.The main research content of this paper:First,the core and indirect subjects of the physical stage of assembly are identified,and the key factors of the development of the main body of the assembly building affecting carbon emissions and the emission reduction behaviors implemented are analyzed based on bibliometric and important literature;On this basis,a factor decomposition model of the impact of assembly building development on carbon emissions in the construction industry is established based on Kaya’s constant equation,according to which the transmission path of the impact of assembly building development on carbon emissions in the construction industry is constructed from four aspects: worker transformation,industry scale,construction technology upgrade,and prefabricated component upgrade,propose a theoretical model of the mechanism of the impact of assembled building development on carbon emissions in the construction industry.Secondly,applying the complex system theory and ABM modeling method,the developer,construction unit,design unit and component factory are regarded as independent Agents,and the STIRPAT model,the efficiency and benefit measure of technological progress are applied to establish the impact mechanism of the development of assembled buildings on the carbon emission of the construction industry,and the simulation model construction of the impact mechanism based on Multi-Agent is completed.In Anylogic 8.0 development tool,the simulation of multi-body model was realized by combining the data of demonstration projects in Beijing and Haimen to derive the evolution trend of carbon emission in the stage of assembled building construction and the construction industry,to verify the simulation results,and to conduct sensitivity analysis on assembly rate,assembly construction efficiency,standardization level of prefabricated components,intensity of government economic stimulus and quality level of prefabricated components.It reveals the mechanism of carbon emission evolution in the physical stage,as well as the influencing factors,paths of action and effects of the development of the main body of assembled buildings on carbon emissions in the construction industry.The results show that the carbon emission of prefabricated buildings shows an inverted "U" pattern with the assembly rate,reaching a peak when the assembly rate is53.3%.Through sensitivity analysis,it is found that in the early stage of prefabricated buildings,we should pay attention to the control of the steel content of prefabricated components.In the middle stage,we should improve the number of repeated use of steel molds and strengthen the worker training system.In the later stage,we can effectively realize the emission reduction benefits of prefabricated buildings by controlling the increase of steel content of prefabricated components and strengthening the worker training system.Further,when simulating the mechanism and effect of the behavior of prefabricated buildings on the carbon emission of the construction industry,it is found that with the development of prefabricated buildings,the carbon emission of the construction industry first increases and then decreases,reaching the peak when the assembly rate is 55%,and showing an upward trend again when the assembly rate exceeds 75%,indicating that the improvement of the assembly rate has a saturation effect.The mechanism analysis results show that the upgrading effect of construction technology can effectively promote the carbon emission of China’s construction industry to reach the peak,while the upgrading effect of prefabricated components plays a significant role in the late peak and emission reduction period of the construction industry,and the low intensity of worker training has a strong negative impact on the overall emission reduction process of the construction industry.Based on this,the paper puts forward four paths for the development of prefabricated buildings to promote the construction industry to reduce carbon emissions.This study extends the research results of the environmental impact effects of prefabricated buildings from the micro level to the meso level,establishes the connection mechanism between the energy conservation and emission reduction of prefabricated buildings and the carbon emission of the construction industry,and provides theoretical support and quantitative decision-making basis for the development of the collaborative carbon emission reduction of prefabricated buildings in the construction industry.