Empirical Research On Social Risk Index Of Regional Cities Based On Spatial Effects

With the rapid development of China’s society and economy,the social risks faced by cities in disaster situations have also become apparent,which seriously affects the sustainable development of ecology and society and economy.Preventing risks,reducing vulnerability and improving resilience have gradually become one of the frontier areas of risk and emergency management research.Therefore,scientific research on regional urban social risks is needed.First of all,this article elaborates the background and significance of the research,analyzes the research status at home and abroad from the perspectives of vulnerability and resilience of social risk,and then puts forward the conceptual connotation of the regional social risk index in this paper,identifying and screening the key The index of influencing factors is calculated using the improved open-grade method under the principle of maximizing the overall difference to obtain the urban social risk index.On this basis,the global and local Moran indices are calculated,and a weighted clustering model is constructed for cluster analysis.Finally,a spatial econometric model was constructed to conduct an empirical analysis of the spatial effect of the urban risk index.A spatial lag model,a spatial error model,and a spatial Dubin model were constructed for empirical analysis and comparison.LM,R-LM,and Wald tests were used to show that the space was fixed in time and space.The Dubin model can optimally scale the spatial effects and disassemble the spatial effects of explanatory variables.The research conclusions show that the urban risk index of regional cities has significant spatial correlation,and cities with different social risk index categories have significant geographic agglomeration effects.The local comprehensive economic development level,social security system and infrastructure construction capacity have a significant positive impact on the social risk index and can effectively reduce the degree of social risk in the region.However,although there are indirect effects of related explanatory variables,they are mostly not significant.The degree of coordinated development between cities is not high.Therefore,it is necessary to further improve the communication and coordination between regions in order to promote the comprehensive and coordinated development of cities in the region,thereby reducing the overall social risk index level.