Evaluation Of Emergency Plan For Explosion Accident Based On Fuzzy VIKOR

With the improvement of people’s material living standards and the growth of energy demand,in the field of production,all kinds of explosion accidents occur frequently.The characteristics of fuzziness,suddenness,high destructiveness and huge economic losses of explosion accidents are particularly obvious,and the potential danger is great.As the core of emergency management,the important content of emergency decision-making is to select the optimal emergency disposal scheme from the alternatives.Compared with other sudden disasters,explosion accidents have different characteristics,the occurrence and evolution mechanism of accidents are different,and the decision-making objectives and emphases in the process of emergency rescue are also different.How to build a set of scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of explosion accident emergency plan is particularly important,which provides the basis for decision-makers to select emergency plans and quickly and accurately match to the optimal Emergency disposal plan,reduce casualties and economic losses,minimize the negative impact of the accident.Through the analysis of relevant literature at home and abroad,we can see that most of the current emergency plan evaluation indicators are only obtained through literature analysis,and only consider the first level indicators,the reliability of the indicators is not enough.At the same time,there are few researches on the evaluation index of explosion accident emergency plan.The evaluation index of general type emergency plan can not reflect the characteristics and actual needs of emergency rescue process of explosion accident,and the unique factors of emergency decision-making of explosion accident need to be reflected in the evaluation index.According to the characteristics of the accident and the evolution of the accident,the decision-making is carried out according to the characteristics and requirements of the accident.In this paper,the decision-making tasks and key points in the process of the occurrence,development,spread,derivation and transformation of explosion accidents are analyzed from the two stages of response and recovery in emergency management.The decision-making requirements of explosion accidents are analyzed from the perspectives of time sequence,dynamics and complexity.Then,based on the analysis of evolution mechanism and demand of explosion accident,seven principles for selecting indexes are determined.Through literature research,a series of first-class and second-class indexes are preliminarily selected.After two rounds of Delphi method,questionnaires are sent to relevant experts.According to the evaluation information,judgment basis and familiarity of experts,the indexes that do not meet the conditions are deleted In addition to the treatment,4 first-class indexes and 11 second-class indexes are finally selected to establish the evaluation index system for the selection of emergency plans for explosion accidents.The fuzzy VIKOR method is used to describe the fuzziness and uncertainty in the emergency decision-making of explosion accidents,and the expert weight and attribute weight are calculated according to the expert evaluation information.At the same time,considering that many factors in the actual emergency decision-making are difficult to describe with accurate numerical value,and there are differences in decision-making experience and cognition of different experts,this paper uses multiple types of decision-making information and transforms it into interval intuitionistic fuzzy for information aggregation.Finally,the emergency plan of Tianjin Port explosion accident is evaluated and selected based on the data obtained from expert scoring.The optimal scheme and index are analyzed through the final selection results and actual decision-making effect.