Reliability Test And Evaluation Of Emergency Plan Of Refining And Chemical Enterprises Based On Fault Injection

Emergency plan is a programmatic document to control the occurrence and development of accidents and reduce accident losses.It is a standardized response procedure after accidents.At present,the development of emergency plan and system in China has been very mature.However,the emergency response process carried out according to the emergency plan is a complex and huge system,which often can not effectively curb accidents due to deviations and errors in the process of emergency preparation and emergency response,and can not give full play to the purpose of controlling accidents and reducing accident losses.In order to improve the enterprise’s emergency response ability,this paper specially carries out the reliability test and optimization of the emergency plan,quantitatively identifies the key links and weak links in the emergency response process,tests the impact of the length of emergency disposal action on the reliability of the emergency plan,puts forward the optimization strategy of emergency capacity,and systematically evaluates and optimizes the reliability of the emergency plan.The main research contents are as follows:(1)In view of the key and weak links in the process of emergency response that cannot be quantitatively identified and evaluated at present,the comprehensive emergency plan of refining and chemical enterprises,the special emergency plan for leakage and poisoning of dangerous chemicals,the special emergency plan for explosion and fire of tank farm and unit,etc.are selected through risk analysis.Combined with the emergency disposal card for leakage of liquid ammonia storage tank,the emergency scenario of leakage of liquid ammonia storage tank is constructed based on scenario construction technology,and the emergency response process is combed,The hierarchical time Petri net model of emergency response in refining and chemical enterprises is established.It is transformed into an isomorphic Markov chain,and the important links in the emergency response process such as early warning of events,arrangement of emergency disposal decisions,fire fighting and personnel rescue are quantitatively calculated through the steady-state probability of the system;Through the two indicators of the busy rate of the depot and the change utilization rate,the time-consuming links such as personnel rescue,environmental monitoring and protection of adjacent devices in the emergency response process are identified,the emergency response actions in the emergency response process are quantified,and the optimization strategy of the enterprise’s emergency capacity is put forward.(2)Aiming at the problem that it is impossible to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the length of emergency response link on the reliability of other emergency response actions and emergency plans,a reliability test of emergency plans based on the concept of fault injection is proposed.Change the time of each emergency response action on the pychar platform,conduct simulation test on the emergency response system,and identify that personnel rescue,fire rescue and isolation protection of adjacent devices have a great impact on the emergency response system.Taking the steady-state probability of the emergency response system as the data of the reliability evaluation of the emergency plan,taking the two emergency disposal actions of the discovery of emergencies and the isolation and protection of adjacent devices as examples,when the discovery time of emergencies is shortened from 10 minutes to 5 minutes,3 minutes and 1 minute respectively,the reliability of the emergency plan is improved by 5.24%,7.53% and 9.94%respectively;When the time for isolation protection of adjacent devices is shortened from12 minutes to 8 minutes,6 minutes and 3 minutes respectively,the reliability of the emergency plan is improved by 6.41%,10.17% and 14.72% respectively.(3)In order to systematically evaluate and optimize the reliability of emergency plan in the whole life cycle of refining and chemical enterprises,and break the limitation of reliability evaluation only for the text content of emergency plan,an emergency plan reliability evaluation index system including 7 elements and 40 indicators is established from the two aspects of emergency preparation and emergency response,which is 3.4times more comprehensive than the reliability evaluation only for the text content of emergency plan.In order to improve the reliability of emergency plan,the reliability evaluation model of emergency plan based on GA-BP neural network is established.Taking the emergency plan of M,N and O refining and chemical enterprises as an example,the reliability of emergency plan is improved by 18.4%,24.23% and 7.1%respectively by strengthening the guarantee of emergency resources;By strengthening the management of emergency personnel,the reliability of their emergency plans has been improved by 5.27%,10.8% and 8.7% respectively,which provides a new idea and guidance for the optimization of the reliability of enterprise emergency plans.