Research On Procurement Strategy Of Emergency Supplies Based On Bayesian Inference

Frequent emergencies will make the demand for emergency supplies face great uncertainty,and the existing technical means are difficult to accurately predict the emergencies.In order to establish a scientific and reasonable emergency procurement mechanism,both government and enterprises need to make reasonable decisions on emergency reserve and pricing,in order to improve the efficiency of emergency procurement and reduce the secondary injury caused by the shortage of emergency material after the occurrence of emergencies.In the past,the research on emergency procurement mostly focused on the cooperation between government and enterprises,ignoring the difference between emergency procurement and general commercial procurement mode.This paper focuses on the particularity of emergency procurement,uses Bayesian inference method,takes fairness concern and risk avoidance as the breakthrough point,and explores the optimal reserve and pricing of decision makers in the process of emergency procurement under the condition of information update.Firstly,based on Bayesian inference method,a risk-neutral model of emergency reserve is established,and the optimal reserves of the government and suppliers are obtained.On this basis,risk aversion is added to the emergency material reserve model,and a new optimal reserve quantity is deduced by Conditional Value at Risk.Then,based on Bayesian inference,the pricing model of emergency procurement is established,and the optimal pricing of the government under risk neutrality is obtained.On this basis,fairness concern and risk aversion are added to the model for research,and the conditions satisfied by the optimal pricing of emergency procurement by the government are further deduced.Finally,the influence of each parameter on the optimal quantity is discussed,and the conclusion is verified by an example analysis.The results show that the optimal decision of information updating under Bayesian inference method is better than no information updating.In the case of risk neutrality,the reserve of suppliers is positively correlated with the exercise price of options and negatively correlated with the reserve period.In the case of risk aversion,the optimal reserve of the government is positively correlated with the risk aversion coefficient and negatively correlated with the reserve time.It is positively related to the probability of unexpected events.As for the pricing of emergency procurement,the optimal pricing of information update by the government using Bayesian inference method is better than that without information update.Without considering fairness concerns and risk avoidance,the optimal pricing of the government is positively related to the reserve.When the government only considers fairness concerns,the optimal pricing of the government is positively related to the coefficient of fairness concerns.When the government only considers risk aversion,the optimal pricing of the government is negatively correlated with its risk aversion coefficient.When government pricing considers both fairness concern and risk aversion,the optimal government pricing is negatively correlated with its fairness concern coefficient and positively correlated with its risk aversion coefficient.