| The livestock and poultry industry is one of the important components of China’s agricultural development.Due to the role of market economy,the price fluctuation of livestock and poultry meat has become the normal state of the agricultural product market.The moderate fluctuation of its price can play a role in regulating the market,but the abnormal fluctuation of livestock and poultry prices will hinder the normal operation of the market.In recent years,due to the influence of multiple factors at both ends of supply and demand,the price of livestock and poultry fluctuates frequently.As a typical livestock and poultry production and marketing area in China,the price fluctuations among the three regions not only have their own market characteristics,but also have the transmission phenomenon of price fluctuations.Therefore,this paper takes the livestock and poultry prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object,and makes theoretical and empirical analysis on the characteristics of livestock and poultry price fluctuations,price synchronization and their linkage effects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the basis of the relevant research results.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The fluctuation characteristics of livestock and poultry production prices and sales prices in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2003 to 2020 are analyzed by using H-P filter method and Census X12 seasonal adjustment method.The conclusion shows that there are obvious differences in the fluctuation characteristics of the production price index of livestock and poultry in the three regions.The production price index of livestock products in Beijing and Hebei has a long-term upward trend,and the production price index of livestock products in Tianjin has an upward trend only in 2015;The production price index of poultry products in the three places is in a long-term downward trend.In addition,the research shows that there are four cycles in the sales price of livestock and poultry in Beijing in the past five years,two cycles in the sales price of livestock and poultry in Tianjin,and only one cycle in the price of livestock and poultry in Hebei.At the same time,the seasonal characteristics of livestock and poultry price fluctuations are relatively obvious,showing the characteristics of low and middle level operation,and high level operation at the beginning and end of the year.(2)The short-term synchronization of the price changes of livestock and poultry in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei was analyzed by using the synchronization coefficient method,which showed that there was an obvious short-term synchronization trend among the prices of livestock and poultry of the same category in the three places,but there was a large difference in the degree of synchronization.The synchronization of pork price fluctuation is the strongest,followed by chicken,and the synchronization of beef and mutton price is the lowest among the three.(3)Through Granger causality test,the causal relationship of livestock and poultry prices in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is analyzed.The price of livestock and poultry in Beijing and Tianjin can have a great impact on the price of livestock and poultry in Hebei Province.The price transmission among the three places is demand-driven.(4)The transmission of livestock and poultry prices in the three places has different lag characteristics.Based on the above analysis,the article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions such as establishing an information platform for the production and marketing of livestock and poultry products,improving the mechanism of livestock and poultry price control,and improving the organization and specialization of production in the main livestock and poultry production areas. |
