| At present,the research on power consumption at home and abroad is mostly based on the statistical data of administrative divisions to predict and evaluate power consumption.However,traditional statistical data can not reflect the high-resolution spatial distribution information of power consumption,which hinders the comprehensive analysis of power consumption data combined with other socio-economic factors.At the same time,the statistical data has the shortcomings of long period and lack of data,so it is difficult to study the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of power consumption in long time series.Night lighting data can avoid the shortcomings of traditional statistical data,cover a wide range,and effectively reflect the spatial distribution differences of data,so it is widely used in multi-scale and long-time series research.Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of cities and economy in Guangdong Province,there are problems of power shortage and imbalance between power supply and demand.Studying the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of power consumption in Guangdong Province and its influencing factors can provide certain reference significance for the Guangdong provincial government to allocate power resources scientifically and reasonably.Therefore,this paper firstly fuses two kinds of night light remote sensing data,which extends the time coverage of the study;Then,combining the night lighting data with the statistical data of power consumption,the optimal fitting model of power consumption is constructed from the provincial and municipal scales based on time series,and the spatial distribution of power consumption in Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2019 is inversed and simulated,and its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics are studied.Finally,the geographical weighted regression model is used to analyze and study the influencing factors of electricity consumption in Guangdong Province.The specific research contents and results are as follows:(1)The stable night lighting data of DMSP-OLS from 2001 to 2013 and the annual lighting data of NPP-VIIRS from 2012 to 2019 are corrected and fused;Standardize the statistical data of power consumption and other socio-economic statistics.The results show that the processed longtime night lighting data has good continuity and can be used to build the subsequent power consumption simulation model.(2)The linear function,logarithmic function,exponential function and quadratic polynomial function models of power consumption and night lighting data are constructed from the provincial and municipal scales based on time series,respectively.It is found that the goodness of fit of the four models is greater than 0.7,among which the quadratic function model has the best goodness of fit of 0.969,and the maximum relative error of the model is 16.23%,and the minimum is only 0.36%,which shows that the quadratic function model has a good simulation effect.After downscaling,the quadratic polynomial function model with intercept removed is used to construct the final simulation model,and the simulation results are spatialized,and finally the spatial distribution of power consumption in various prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2019 is obtained.(3)Based on the simulation results of power consumption from 2001 to 2019,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of power consumption in Guangdong Province are analyzed from the time trend and spatial pattern respectively by using the column chart and spatial distribution chart,slope unary tendency value method,global Moran’s I index and local Moran’s I index.The spatial pattern distribution of power consumption shows that the power consumption of various prefecturelevel cities in Guangdong Province is increasing year by year.The power consumption in the Pearl River Delta region is the highest,followed by the coastal economic belt,and the lowest is the northern ecological development zone.The proportion of electricity consumption in the Pearl River Delta region in the whole province is decreasing,and the main electricity consumption areas are Shenzhen and Dongguan.The proportion of electricity consumption in the coastal economic zone and the northern ecological development zone in the province is increasing,and the main electricity consumption areas are Shantou,Zhanjiang and Qingyuan.The analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics shows that there is a positive spatial correlation in the distribution of power consumption in Guangdong Province,but the overall spatial correlation is gradually weakening,and the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration is becoming less and less obvious,indicating that the differences in regional development are gradually narrowing.High-high concentration areas are mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta,and low-low concentration areas are mainly distributed in the northern ecological development area.The power consumption levels in the province are mainly low-grade and medium-grade,and the sum of them accounts for 91.30%of the total area of the province.The proportion of high-grade and high-grade power consumption areas in the province is 2.10%and 6.60%respectively.On the whole,the power consumption level is on the rise,and the low-grade power consumption cities are gradually decreasing,while the high-grade power consumption cities are gradually increasing.The low-grade power consumption area is mainly the northern ecological development area,the medium-grade and high-grade power consumption areas are mainly the coastal economic belt,and the high-grade power consumption areas are all distributed in the Pearl River Delta.At the same time,the growth trend of power consumption is obvious,and the proportion of low-speed,medium-speed and high-speed growth areas in the province is 47.25%,37.74%and 15.02%respectively.(4)On the basis of traditional correlation analysis,a geographically weighted regression model is introduced to further explore the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors on power consumption.The results show that the four influencing factors of Guangdong’s GDP,foreign investment,secondary industry and tertiary industry from 2001 to 2019 all promote the power consumption,and GDP has a greater impact on the power consumption of cities in the eastern region,but has a relatively small impact on the power consumption of cities in the southwestern region.Foreign investment plays a promoting role as a whole,and high-value areas fluctuate greatly.The region where the secondary industry has obvious promotion effect on Guangdong Province is the east-north-east center of gravity shift.The tertiary industry plays an obvious role in promoting Guangdong Province in the east,while the low-value areas are concentrated in the southwest. |
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