Study On The Impact Of Climate Change On The Grain Yield In Anhui Province

Climate change changes the growth environment of crops,thereby affecting grain yield.Stimulated by changes in the growth environment,crops undergo changes in their traits to adapt to the new environment and mitigate the impact of climate change on grain crop growth.At the same time,changes in agricultural production inputs can correct the climate change changing crop growth environment,thereby reducing the impact of climate change on grain yield.Therefore,studying the impact of climate change on grain yield and its differences among different grain crops,while considering the role of adaptation in this impact process,is of great significance for improving the adaptability of grain production to climate change and ensuring food security in China.Based on the production function theory,climate change adaptation theory,etc.,relying on the consulting research project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering Research on the transformation and development strategy of ecological adaptive agriculture in Anhui Huaihe River Economic Belt,this thesis depicts the temperature,precipitation The main characteristics of the changes in the three major climate factors of Rizhao and the trend of changes in the structure of food production.Using a fixed effects panel model,empirically test the impact of climate change on the yield per unit area of various grain crops in Anhui Province.Using pulse response analysis to predict the impact of changes in the three major climate factors in Anhui Province on the yield per unit area of various grain crops in the next 10 years.Incorporate the interaction terms of natural adaptation and human adaptation into the fixed effects panel model,and explore the roles of natural adaptation and human adaptation in the process of climate change affecting grain yield,respectively.The research conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)The main characteristics of climate change in Anhui Province in the past 30 years are the increase in temperature and the decrease in sunshine duration,with no significant trend in precipitation but an increase in fluctuation amplitude;Anhui Province experienced two sudden increases in temperature between 1996 and 1997 and 2014,as well as a sudden decrease in sunshine hours between1999 and 2000,while precipitation remained fluctuating and stable;Middle to late rice and wheat are the main grain crops in Anhui Province and their dominant position is becoming increasingly evident.(2)The empirical analysis results of the fixed effects panel model indicate that changes in climate factors in Anhui Province have an "inverted U-shaped" impact on the yield of grain crops per unit area,and there is a high possibility that climate change in Anhui Province will reduce the yield of wheat per unit area in the future.(3)The role of natural adaptation is mainly reflected in mitigating the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation.Among human adaptation measures,mechanical and irrigation inputs have better effects in mitigating the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation.In response to the above conclusions,this article proposes policy recommendations as follows:(1)Optimize the grain planting structure and appropriately increase the proportion of grain production other than wheat.(2)Pay attention to agricultural seed selection and breeding,and explore shade tolerant grain crop varieties.(3)Expand the effective irrigation area,improve the mechanization level of grain production,and enhance the ability to resist climate change risks.