Research On Credit Risk Contagion Of Supply Chain Finance Based On Complex Network

As an emerging financing model,supply chain finance relieves the financial pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises,at the same time,it can expand bank business,increase the income of core enterprises,and benefit all parties.More and more,the connection is also closer.However,with the development of supply chain finance,the network structure has become more and more fragile,and credit risk problems have begun to emerge.Starting in2020,the COVID-19 epidemic has had a huge impact on supply chain finance business.Under the epidemic,commodity turnover was difficult,banking policies were tightened,and companies were unable to repay in time,increasing the probability of supply chain finance credit risks.This paper uses complex network theory to study the contagion mechanism of supply chain finance network credit risk,and proposes risk control strategies,which is of great significance to reduce the probability of supply chain finance network credit risk and ensure the stable development of supply chain finance.Firstly,this paper introduces the characteristics of the supply chain financial network.According to the actual situation of the enterprise network,the supply chain financial network is constructed on a scale-free basis and the network topology is analyzed;Improve the SIRS model and build a credit risk contagion model for supply chain finance.Then,taking Yonghui supermarket supply chain finance as an example,use matlab software to simulate and analyze the factors affecting credit risk and immune strategy,and combine the simulation results of other examples to summarize supply chain finance.The network credit risk contagion mechanism;finally,the credit risk control strategy is proposed from the node enterprise,supply chain financial network and social level.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Factors such as the type of infected nodes,the number of initial infected people,and the financing ratio affect the speed and scale of credit risk infection in supply chain finance networks.The larger the node degree value,the higher the financing ratio,and the number of network risk sources.The more,the faster the network credit risk contagion,and the larger the risk impact scale.(2)The number of initial risk sources does not affect the steady state of supply chain financial network credit risk contagion.(3)The network credit risk contagion threshold of supply chain finance is roughly inversely related to the network structure and network scale.Controlling the network scale and improving the network structure can increase the network risk contagion threshold and reduce the probability of network credit risk.(4)Different immunization strategies have different effects on the control of online credit infection.The target immunity has the best effect and can effectively control the online credit risk infection,but it is not suitable for large-scale networks.The acquaintance immunity strategy can also effectively control the online risk infection.And it is suitable for large-scale networks.Random immunity has a certain control effect on network credit risk contagion,but the effect is limited.(5)There are many factors affecting credit risk in the supply chain financial network.It is not easy to control the occurrence of credit risk and risk contagion.It is necessary to take control measures from the node enterprise,supply chain financial network and community level.