Spatiotemporal Dynamics Analysis Of Spatial Economic Growth Using Spatial Solow-Swan Model

The study of regional economic growth has long been one of the focuses of economists’ attention.There are few studies on whether economic growth between different regions is affected by various factors in their neighboring economies,and whether interdependence among economies promotes or inhibits regional economic development.Based on the extended spatial Solow-Swan model,this thesis conducts a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of China’s spatial economic growth.The research work of this thesis mainly includes the following aspects1.The spatial expansion of Solow Swan’s economic growth model.Firstly,a production function suitable for spatial economic growth is constructed based on the spillover effects of technology in the C-D production function;Secondly,the basic characteristics of SolowSwan’s theoretical growth model are used to determine the dynamic equation of capital accumulation under steady-state conditions;Finally,the conditional convergence model of the economic growth rate of the economy at the steady state level is obtained,and four hypotheses are proposed about whether the steady state position of a particular economy is related to the steady state position of its neighboring economies or the rate of savings,population growth,scientific and technological progress rate and depreciation rate.2.Model verification and cycle selection.Firstly,through spatial autocorrelation analysis,it is determined to introduce a spatial inverse distance weight matrix to test the spatially expanded Solow-Swan model;Secondly,by using Lagrange multiplication test(LM),Wald test,LR test,and Hausman test,a spatial Dubin metric model with double fixed time and space is determined;Finally,select cross-sectional data with T=15,panel data with period T=3,and panel data with period T=5 to perform OLS regression and spatially expanded Solow-Swan conditional convergence model tests,respectively.3.Based on the per capita GDP and labor population growth rate of various provinces in China from 2005 to 2019,the empirical analysis results of the spatially expanded SolowSwan model test are as follows: the economic growth rate of a province has nothing to do with the savings rate,population growth rate,scientific and technological progress rate and depreciation rate of neighboring provinces,but is related to the economic growth rate.However,its steady economic level will be indirectly affected by the savings rate,population growth rate,scientific and technological progress rate and depreciation rate of neighboring provinces,but not directly.