| The result of the combined action of natural and human variables in the area,land use landscape pattern visually reflects the general characteristics of land use landscape pattern in various regions under the combined action of human activity disturbance and natural environmental variances.The consistent application and promotion of national development strategies,ongoing social and economic progress,and the wave of new urbanization and industrialization have all contributed to a deeper and more pervasive influence of external factors on regional land use landscape patterns and the emergence of more ecological issues that have drawn the significant attention of academics.Therefore,in order to allocate land resources wisely,optimize the regional spatial pattern of three lives,and encourage the coordinated and sustainable development of regional land resources and ecological environment,it is important to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of regional land use landscape pattern and the mechanism of influencing factors.In order to quantitatively analyze the land use evolution pattern of the Lvzhijiang River Basin from 1990 to 2020,this paper uses the current land use data in four periods of 1990,2000,2010 and 2020.Based on these data,the research object is the Lvzhijiang River Basin in Yunnan Province.The best level of landscape pattern analysis granularity was determined using the Fragstats4.2 landscape index analysis software,and suitable indicators were chosen at the landscape type level and landscape level to complete the analysis of the spatial and temporal variation of landscape pattern in the study area;Geo Detector was used under the configuration of the R language environment to analyze the mechanism of influencing factors of the landscape pattern.The spatial pattern of land use in the study region in 2030 is then predicted and simulated for two scenarios,and the land use situation under the two scenarios is compared and assessed.All of this is based on the FLUS model.The following are the key findings of the study.(1)The land use landscape pattern’s spatial and temporal evolution characteristics are shown for the Green Juice River basin.The Lvzhijiang River Basin has three main land use types: forest land,grassland,and agriculture.Together,these three land use types make up more than 95% of the basin’s total area.Despite the fact that all three land use groups are losing area during the research period,the loss is rather modest.The area of land utilized for building and the area of water among the other land types both increased,while the area of undeveloped land,which made up the smallest fraction,slightly decreased.Regarding the mutual transfer between land use types,the mutual transformation between land use types in the study area is more extreme,and the mutual transformation of the main three land use types is more frequent,with the area of forest land transferred out and transferred in being the most common.The area of construction land increased the most during the study period,from 282.23 km2 in 1990 to 442.53km2 in 2020,both in terms of magnitude of change.The response of various landscape pattern indices in the study area to changes in grain size is divided into two categories:decreasing trend and no significant change.Finally,60 m is decided to be the appropriate scale for landscape pattern analysis in the study area.The research area’s landscape is,on the whole,comparatively complete,with good landscape clustering and a richer landscape.Shannon diversity index and uniformity index change trends are similar,the overall change is not significant,indicating that the study area landscape patches with time changes tend to uniform distribution trend,landscape richness is good;landscape fragmentation index as a whole increased,although the magnitude of change is very small;and the number of large patches in the study area is good degree of agglomeration.Each landscape type,as well as the degree of proximity and combination,are good and fluctuate very little over the course of the study period,indicating that the connectivity of each landscape type is good,but for a single landscape type,the edge density index of woodland is the highest and the change of construction land is the largest.(2)An analysis of the land use change’s spatial divergence in the Lvzhijiang River basin’s affecting elements was done.Its characteristics show that the explanatory power of the driving factors has some spatial geographical stability and time series dynamics.The formation of spatial divergence of land use change in the Green Juice River over three decades is the result of the synergistic effect of the driving factors.There are regional and temporal variations in the explanatory capacity of the significance factors for land use change,as well as variances in the factors that predominate land use change in the research area at various times.Overall,the two topographic conditions are the primary influencing factors for land use change in the study area,and the two socioeconomic dimensions play a dominant role in land use change in the Green Juice River during the study period.The factors primarily exhibit two types of two-factor enhancement and nonlinear weakening after two interactions,among which the interaction of socioeconomic factors with slope in topographic factors and precipitation in climatic conditions has a stronger synergistic ability to explain land use change in the watershed pairs and influences and constrains the spatial variation of land use in the Lvzhijiang River Basin under their joint action.(3)Under several scenarios,the research area’s future spatial pattern of land use was forecasted.Under the ecological conservation scenario and the natural development scenario,there are some variances in the land use structure and geographical distribution of the Green Juice River basin in 2030 by altering the transfer probability and cost of land use categories.Under a natural scenario,land use changes in accordance with the current change trend,and construction land encroaches on other land use types with a clear pattern and a significant area growth.The increased area of construction land is primarily dispersed around An Ning and Jin Ning,which corresponds with the economic growth level of counties and cities in the Green Juice River basin,as compared to the real land use status map from 2020.The stability of land use types in the study area has been improved under the ecological protection scenario by taking into account policies,planning,and the protection requirements of special regions,controlling the transformation between land use types by restricting the transfer of land use types in nature reserves and watersheds,and lowering the likelihood of converting forest land and grassland to construction land. |
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